Expectations were sky high for quarterback Blaine Gabbert coming out of the NFL draft. Gabbert was picked 10th overall by the Jacksonville Jaguards in 2011 and was thought to be the franchise’s savior. Unfortunately his play was inconsistent throughout his tenure with the team and he was widely viewed as a massive bust by the time they shipped him out to the 49ers for a measly return in 2014. Despite being given a chance to learn as a backup in a supposed better environment, most assumed Gabbert was destined for a short career holding the clipboard. This season, though, Gabbert has been given an opportunity to ignite his career as starter Colin Kaepernick was lost for the season to injury. Prior to that injury, Kaepernick was engulfed in a miserable campaign that featured a career low 2-6 record and career low 78.5 quarterback rating. Gabbert, meanwhile, has posted a 2-2 record in 4 games with a career high 89.5 quarterback rating. This begs the question: should be be given the opportunity to start in 2016?
As the 49ers consider their quarterback situation next year, it’s important to remember they’ll have an excellent draft pick. Whether Kaepernick remains or they decide to invest that pick in a new passer (or neither) remains to be seen. Should they elect to draft a quarterback high, one would think they would want to use Gabbert as a bridge to allow a young passer to develop. Should they not draft a quarterback and still feel parting ways with Kaepernick is necessary, it’s hard to envision a scenario where Gabbert doesn’t stay as the starter. The 49ers are reportedly open to keeping Kaepernick but his horrific play prior to the injury combined with his massive 6 year, $126 million contract could make that prohibitive. Gabbert, meanwhile, has one year left on his deal worth $1.75 million in 2016. Much has been made of Kaepernick’s contract being so “team friendly” due to such a low signing bonus number. Indeed, the 49ers could save over $9 million in cap space by releasing Kaepernick and cap wise would only be responsible for taking a hit on the remaining ~$7 million prorated amount of his signing bonus. Financially it makes a lot more sense to part ways with Kaepernick unless the 49ers are confident he gives them a good chance to get back to the playoffs as a starter. Kaepernick may still be viewed as a better option than Gabbert, but how much better? And is it worth it for how much more he’s making? Consider the cap relief the 49ers could enjoy, meaning they could add more talent around Gabbert with Kaepernick gone.
Meanwhile, Gabbert has played well. The two losses were at Seattle and hosting Arizona, expected results against very good teams. And Gabbert played better in those two games than he did in wins over the Bears and Falcons. That has to be an encouraging sign not only for his future with the 49ers but his longevity in the NFL. Holding the situation he was in as a young developing player in the black hole that is Jacksonville football against him would be unfair. Gabbert has shown maturation and improvement in this new environment despite a supporting cast that’s barely better. At the very least, the 49ers would be astute to hang onto him as a backup plan should Kaepernick falter again in 2016. If not, Gabbert should be given serious consideration as the opening day starter in 2016. Granted, this sample size is too small to trust Gabbert without a fallback plan, but there’s no question his play thus far merits further evaluation. How he performs over the course of these last four games will dictate the future of his career in a big way.
