Coming into the season, one team made sense above all others to put themselves in pole position for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
A team in the Bay Area.
A team with a rotten quarterback.
And a team that just so happened to have Luck’s college head man as their new coach.
That team was the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners had one of the most tumultuous seasons in the league last year, parting ways with Head Coach Mike Singletary, firing their offensive coordinator after only three games, and only managing to win six games in the putrid NFC West. Aside from hiring Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco didn’t make too many explosive changes in the offseason in acquiring talent. In fact, they lost one of the key prizes in free agency, DT Aubrayo Franklin, to the New Orleans Saints. The Niners themselves signed a few new faces, mostly in the defensive secondary with Donte Whitner and Carlos Rogers joining the fold.
And yet somehow, San Francisco is a mile ahead of the pack in the NFC West at 4-1. Their possible season of tanking to grab the gold in Andrew Luck may turn into a playoff spot and more. Looking at the numbers doesn’t quite tell the whole story. San Francisco is only 15th in total defense and 23rd in total offense. The NFL is a passing league, but SF’s passing numbers are even worse – 28th in passing yards and 24th in defending the pass. And yet, somehow they score 28.4 PPG (7th) and only allow 15.6 PPG (2nd only to Baltimore). What gives? What can explain the sudden and unexplainable turnaround of the San Francisco 49ers? Here’s four factors that have made the 49ers the surprise team in the NFL so far this season…
1) Jim Harbaugh
Nothing says starting over and breathing new life into an organization and a team like an exciting, young, new head coach. Look at what Mike Tomlin has done in Pittsburgh or Sean Payton in New Orleans. 49ers fans might have been dreaming up something similar to the Payton/Brees marriage thinking Andrew Luck would follow his college coach to the Bay Area. However, that mirage vastly undersold one fact. Jim Harbaugh is a damn good coach. One doesn’t turn Stanford into a Pac 12 powerhouse without laying the foundation of an excelllent program and good coaching. However, Harbaugh’s greatest feat may have been resurrecting the dead and buried career of QB Alex Smith. Owner Jed York told the San Francisco Chronicle before the season:
“You can’t leave out Harbaugh. Jim is the guy that evaluates quarterbacks. That’s one of the top reasons we wanted Jim as a head coach, because if you can’t develop a quarterback and have a quarterback that wins, you are not going to win in the NFL. If Jim feels comfortable with Alex, then I feel comfortable with Jim.”
Smith has actually somewhat resembled a #1 NFL Draft pick this season. Check out how his stats so far in 2011 compare to his career numbers:
So far in 2011, Smith is on pace to anihilate career highs in nearly every single statistical passing category. Either he suddenly learned how to be an effective quarterback overnight… or the influence of Jim Harbaugh is more than anyone thought remotely possible this season.
2) Special Teams
Ted Ginn basically won the season opener against Seattle with these kickoff and punt returns for a touchdown in the fourth quarter…
http://youtube.com/watch?v=tWuHHYyGBak?hd=1
Aside from Ginn’s heroics in the first week, the Niners rank high in several special teams categories. 2nd in kickoff returns thaks to Ginn and 2nd in net punting thanks to Andy Lee. In fact, San Francisco is averaging +9 yards over their opposition in net punting. San Francisco is gaining 9 yards for every punting exchange. That may seem like a silly stat to a lot of football fans, but it’s that hidden yardage that is often the difference between a team that’s 6-10 and 10-6.
3) Frank Gore
Like Alex Smith, Frank Gore was largely dismissed coming into the 2011 season. The tires have been kicked around quite a bit over the years and Gore’s shelf life is reaching its expiration date. His attempts have decreased each of the last four seasons as injuries began to take a toll. This season started out in a simlar fashion, with Gore only netting 150 yards in his team’s first three games. However, Gore came to life in Philly with 127 yards on 15 carries. In SF’s 48-3 demolition of the Bucs, Gore again crossed 100 yards finishing with 125 on 20 carries. It’s the first time Gore has had back to back games over 125 yards since his 2006 Pro Bowl season. The addition of rookie Kendall Hunter from Oklahoma State to spell Gore in the backfield has been a boost to the SF offense as well.
4) Turnovers
But by far, the biggest reason for San Francisco’s impressive start is in the turnover department. Don’t believe turnovers are important? There have been whole statistical studies on the correlation between positive turnover differential and winning football games. 9 of 12 playoff teams last year had a positive turnover differential. The 49ers are second in the league in turnover differential at +10. (Buffalo, also 4-1, leads the league at +11.) That means the 49ers are averaging +2 turnovers for each game so far in 2011. Sure, Ronnie Brown won’t always be there to throw away the ball at the goalline every week, but it’s the most encouraging aspect of San Francisco’s start so far. Turnover margin is simply one of the few stats that defines winners and losers in the NFL so clearly.
The 49ers face a tough road test in Detroit this Sunday, but the rest of the schedule breaks down rather favorably. If they take care of business in the division (and frankly, why wouldn’t they, have you seen any of those other teams play), it will be a stroll by the bay into the postseason. It may not lead them to Andrew Luck, but 49ers fans will likely take it.
Photo via daylife.com
