In each of the last 11 years, the defending Super Bowl champion has failed to repeat. That’s the longest such stretch in NFL history, dating all the way back to 1920. Just too much parity these days, too much balance coming from the salary cap and free agency. And with 32 teams, the odds are stacked against former winners.
In fact, since New England last repeated in 2004, here’s how defending champs have fared:
2005: Patriots win 10 games and the AFC East, win a wild-card game but lose in the divisional playoffs
2006: Steelers go 8-8, miss the playoffs
2007: Colts win 13 games and the AFC South, lose in the divisional playoffs
2008: Giants win 12 games and the NFC East, lose in the divisional playoffs
2009: Steelers go 9-7, miss the playoffs
2010: Saints win 11 games but fail to win the NFC South, lose in the wild-card round
2011: Packers win 15 games and the NFC North, lose in the divisional playoffs
2012: Giants go 9-7, miss the playoffs
2013: Ravens go 8-8, miss the playoffs
2014: Seahawks win 12 games and the NFC West, win two playoff games but lose Super Bowl
2015: Patriots win 12 games and the AFC East, win a playoff game but lose conference championship
Among 11 reigning champs, that’s four total playoff wins, only one Super Bowl appearance and only two conference title game appearances. And those three major appearances and three of those four wins came from Seattle and New England the last two years. Before that, defending Super Bowl winners failed to win a playoff game for eight straight years.
Even with some recent momentum coming from Seattle and New England, it’ll be extremely hard for the Broncos to buck the trend in 2016. Not only are the Broncos only the second defending champion ever to begin a season without their top two quarterbacks from the previous year, but Denver will be using a seventh-round pick in his first or second year out of college as a Week 1 starter at quarterback for the first time since the Miami Dolphins did so way back in 1980.
Throw in the loss of Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan on defense, and consider the target on their back within an increasingly strong division, and it’s hard to imagine the Broncos reclaiming the Lombardi Trophy in 2016.
