Seven weeks into the NFL season we are left with no remaining undefeated teams, but the league does have a winless team in the hapless Cleveland Browns. The Browns have been so bad and have had so many quarterback injuries in the first half of the season that the 0-16 chatter has begun to follow head coach Hue Jackson’s team in his first season.
However, as bad as the Browns have been so far this season, it is still highly improbable that they become the NFL’s second 0-16 team at the end of the season. In fact, the Browns have over a 90% chance of avoiding the feat when you look at their win probabilities for the remainder of their schedule.
Analytics expert Rob Pizzola, Business Manager at Prediction Machine, has the Browns odds of going winless this season set at an extremely low 1.8%. According to Prediction Machine’s numbers, the Browns sit with six games left on the schedule in which they have a greater than 30% chance of winning and have at least one game in which they will be favored to win. Week 11 at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers set as the lone game in which the odds will favor the Browns with backup Landry Jones expected to play in place of the injured Ben Roethlisberger.
The Browns game by game win percentages for the rest of the season are as follows:
- Jets (44.7%)
- Cowboys (30.4%)
- @ Ravens (26.4%)
- Steelers* (54.7%)
- Giants (38.3%)
- Bengals (28.1%)
- @ Bills (34.3%)
- Chargers (37.2%)
- @ Steelers (24.8%)
*Steelers number assumes Landry Jones starts at quarterback.
Beyond the percentages is the important factor of the Browns having just three road games left on their slate, an ace in the hole for Cleveland’s chances of avoiding a winless season. Five games out of seven on the road to start the season has played a huge role in the Browns dismal start along with the quarterback injuries and a return home for the second half of the season will be a big boost.
Another boost for the Browns will be the return of a steady presence at quarterback once Josh McCown is healthy, which could happen as early as this week. McCown went down early after he came in to replace RGIII after his season ending injury and his return will be a definite upgrade over rookies Cody Kessler and Kevin Hogan.
All signs point toward Josh McCown's return this Sunday.
📰 » https://t.co/1mEq0GEDoW #NYJvsCLE pic.twitter.com/pwdHtp4Mqp
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) October 28, 2016
McCown’s record over the past three seasons has been a woeful 2-18 as McCown has been the starter on some of the worst teams in the league of late. However, he is a veteran who will give the Browns a much better chance of winning in their final nine games of the season. If McCown can stay healthy, Jackson can install more of his offense with an experienced hand in at quarterback, which could lead to some offensive improvement.
This week will also provide one of the Browns best opportunities to end the 0-16 talk with the struggling New York Jets coming to the Dawg Pound. The Jets did find a way to win at home against the Baltimore Ravens last week, but with quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and the coaching staff publicly at odds, the chances of another meltdown are high. Fitzpatrick has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league this season and could be the perfect matchup for a Cleveland defense that needs a mediocre passer to beat up on to overcome their shortcomings.
Cleveland is still three point underdogs at home against the Jets this week, but the Browns should feel confident in their chances with the way Fitzpatrick has played this season. Up against a 2-5 team, Sunday will be a big spot for a Browns team that desperately wants to break the ice as soon as possible. The chance of a winnable game in a return home after two weeks on the road should have the Browns motivated in what could be Jackson’s biggest game in his first season at head coach. With McCown back and a more favorable matchup, Jackson needs a gameplan that can give the Browns the adjustments they need to put their winless label to rest.
The Browns will surely not be expected to win many of their remaining games this season, but with a high number of home games over the second half of the schedule, it is extremely likely that this team will escape with at least one upset to avoid the 0-16 label. What the Detroit Lions did in the 2008 season was a special type of failure that we will likely never see again, even if the tanking Browns are one of the worst teams in recent memory. Expect the Browns to get the job done before the march to 0-16 can get anywhere near the finish line.
