With five weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture…
AFC right now
1. Patriots (9-2)
2. Raiders (9-2)
3. Ravens (6-5)
4. Texans (6-5)
5. Chiefs (8-3)
6. Dolphins (7-4)
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7. Broncos (7-4)
8. Steelers (6-5)
9. Bills (6-5)
10. Titans (6-6)
11. Colts (5-6)
12. Chargers (5-6)
New England moves back ahead of Oakland thanks to a conference winning percentage tiebreaker which at this stage means very little. Point is, the Pats and Raiders are the clear-cut front-runners for first-round byes. However, the red-hot Dolphins are just two games back of New England and the red-hot Chiefs are just one game back of Oakland. Those two teams control the two wild-card spots anyway, with the Broncos and Steelers within reaching distance. Both Denver and Pittsburgh are also still alive in their respective divisions, with the Broncos two games back of Oakland and Pittsburgh actually tied with Baltimore (the Ravens beat the Steelers earlier this year). The Titans and Colts are still listed because they’re very much alive behind the Texans in the AFC South, while we’re probably just being nice to the Chargers.
AFC projection
1. Patriots (13-3)
2. Raiders (12-4)
3. Steelers (10-6)
4. Titans (9-7)
5. Chiefs (11-5)
6. Ravens (9-7)
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7. Broncos (9-7)
8. Dolphins (9-7)
9. Texans (8-8)
10. Colts (8-8)
11. Billls (8-8)
12. Chargers (7-9)
It’s going to be a battle for that last wild-card spot. I don’t like the way Denver has looked, but Baltimore, Miami and Houston have been no better. Could come down to some potentially complex tiebreakers. The way we crunched the numbers, Baltimore got through. But it’s just too early. More importantly, we see the Pats grabbing the top seed, the Raiders holding on in the toughest division in football and the Steelers and Titans overtaking Baltimore and Houston to win their respective divisions. Don’t have a lot of hope for the Colts or Chargers. This is a top-heavy conference, with the top being represented by New England, Oakland, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Looking way ahead, we’re looking for a situation in which the Pats await the winner of Steelers-Raiders to set up the AFC championship game.
NFC right now
1. Cowboys (10-1)
2. Seahawks (7-3-1)
3. Lions (7-4)
4. Falcons (7-4)
5. Giants (8-3)
6. Redskins (6-4-1)
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7. Buccaneers (6-5)
8. Vikings (6-5)
9. Saints (5-6)
10. Packers (5-6)
11. Eagles (5-6)
This hasn’t changed much in a while. The six playoff teams remain the same, and in basically the same order. But there’s quite a lineup of teams preying on those guys, starting with the surging Bucs. Don’t count them out, and watch out for any team led by Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers. But I don’t think the Vikings and Eagles are sticking around much longer. What’s interesting is the Lions and Falcons still have strong shots at the No. 2 seed but could also fall right out of the playoffs by blowing their respective divisions to the Packers or Vikings or Bucs or Saints.
NFC projection
1. Cowboys (13-3)
2. Seahawks (11-4-1)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. Lions (9-7)
5. Redskins (10-5-1)
6. Giants (10-6)
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7. Packers (9-7)
8. Buccaneers (9-7)
9. Saints (9-7)
10. Vikings (8-8)
11. Eagles (7-9)
Dallas should cruise to the top seed and the Seahawks have an easy enough ride to hang on. I think the Bucs and Saints make big runs but fall short of Atlanta in the South while the Packers suffer the same fate behind Detroit in the North. But don’t be surprised if that division is decided when Detroit hosts Green Bay in Week 17. With everyone brawling, the Redskins and Giants should hold onto those two wild-card spots. The Vikings and Eagles are fading, and I don’t expect to see much more from either of them.
