With three weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture…
AFC right now
1. Patriots (11-2)
2. Chiefs (10-3)
3. Steelers (8-5)
4. Texans (7-6)
5. Raiders (10-3)
6. Broncos (8-5)
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7. Dolphins (8-5)
8. Ravens (7-6)
9. Titans (7-6)
10. Colts (6-7)
New England is back in control and has a clear path to the top seed, while the Chiefs, Raiders and Broncos have been victimized by their division and their schedules. All three are on track to make the playoffs, but the Ravens have an easier path and Miami also remains in contention despite losing Ryan Tannehill. The Titans and Colts are still alive only because they’re battling the mediocre Texans for the AFC South crown.
AFC projection
1. Patriots (14-2)
2. Chiefs (13-3)
3. Steelers (11-5)
4. Texans (9-7)
5. Raiders (12-4)
6. Ravens (9-7)
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7. Broncos (9-7)
8. Dolphins (9-7)
9. Titans (9-7)
10. Colts (8-8)
The Chiefs should win at least two of their last three and I don’t see the Raiders winning out, which pretty much locks those teams into the No. 2 and No. 5 spots. New England won’t likely lose again, but it can probably afford to slip up once and still capture the top seed. Pittsburgh should overpower the Ravens, but Baltimore should still win two of its last three games to sneak into a wild-card spot. The Broncos, Dolphins and Titans will also likely be in the wild-card mix, and Tennessee will likely make a bigger push than Indianapolis in the AFC South, but I’m giving the Texans that No. 4 seed and keeping Miami, Denver and Tennessee out of the playoffs by way of tiebreakers.
NFC right now
1. Cowboys (11-2)
2. Lions (9-4)
3. Seahawks (8-4-1)
4. Falcons (8-5)
5. Giants (9-4)
6. Buccaneers (8-5)
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7. Redskins (7-5-1)
8. Vikings (7-6)
9. Packers (7-6)
If Dallas loses to Tampa Bay this weekend, the winner of the Lions-Giants game will pose a major threat to that top seed. But for now, it’s still rather secure, especially with the Seahawks losing badly in Green Bay. Seattle is left battling only for the No. 2 spot, while the good-not-great Falcons and Bucs are battling for the right to host a wild-card game as NFC South champion. The loser of that battle may have to hold off Washington or Green Bay for a playoff spot, although both could get in. And both the Packers and Vikings are still alive in the NFC North race, too.
NFC projection
1. Cowboys (13-3)
2. Seahawks (11-4-1)
3. Buccaneers (11-5)
4. Packers (10-6)
5. Redskins (10-5-1)
6. Falcons (10-6)
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7. Lions (10-6)
8. Giants (10-6)
9. Vikings (8-8)
Sorry, Lions, but Matthew Stafford is hurt and winning by the skin of your teeth isn’t sustainable. Finishing up against the Giants, Cowboys and Packers is just too tall a task. I’m also not a believer in the Giants, who could easily lose to Detroit and would probably lose on the road to the Redskins in a do-or-die Week 17 matchup. I think the Bucs and Falcons both win 10-plus games to get in, and I’m giving the Packers three wins against Chicago, Minnesota and Detroit. Dallas and Seattle are obvious top seeds.
