The Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans might be the two worst teams in the 2016 NFL playoff field, primarily due to the fact they’re both dealing with turmoil at the most important position in football. Oakland is without breakout star quarterback Derek Carr, who suffered a broken fibula in Week 16, while the Texans were forced to bench struggling $72 million signal caller Brock Osweiler late in the season.
Now, Oakland is faced with having to start veteran backup Matt McGloin, who left the team’s Week 17 game with a shoulder injury, or third-string rookie Connor Cook, who spent virtually the entire year holding a tablet before relieving McGloin on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Texans have to decide whether to stick with third-year backup-turned-starter Tom Savage or go back to Osweiler. Both have struggled, with matters made worse by the fact Savage is now dealing with a concussion.
The Raiders appear to be running out of gas, they lack playoff experience and they’re vulnerable on defense, but the Texans won a terrible division by default, they’re lost on offense and they’re without their best defensive player (and the league’s best defensive player, period) in J.J. Watt.
Frankly, these two are battling for the right to be destroyed next weekend by the New England Patriots.
Six things you need to know
1. The Raiders went 6-2 on the road this season, but they’ve lost two of their last three games away from home and were pummeled by the Broncos in Denver with McGloin and Cook under center in Week 17. Plus, the Texans were 7-1 at home in 2016. So yeah, advantage Houston.
2. Then again, the Texans lost their last home playoff game 31-0. That was one year ago this weekend.
3. Oakland beat Houston 27-20 in Mexico in Week 11, despite the fact the Texans scored in every quarter and controlled the ball for more than 36 minutes. The Raiders had Carr and Houston had Osweiler that night, but removing Carr from the Raiders causes much more damage than removing Osweiler from the Texans. Hence why Houston removed Osweiler by choice.
4. Only one defense had more takeaways than the Raiders this season, but the Houston offense has just five turnovers in the last five games.
5. Technically the Houston defense ranked No. 1 in football, but that unit has often lacked bite without Watt. They ranked just out of the top 10 in terms of points allowed and only five teams forced fewer turnovers. With Watt out and key defensive starters Johnathan Joseph, Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney also dealing with injuries, it’s fair to wonder if Houston won’t be able to take full advantage of Oakland’s messy quarterback situation. The best way to get to young/bad/inexperienced quarterbacks? Turn up the pressure. But against one of the best pass-protecting offensive lines in football, a Houston D that had just 31 regular-season sacks might not be able to do that.
6. The key for Houston could be the return of running back Lamar Miller, who missed the final two weeks of the regular season due to an ankle injury but should be good to go Saturday against an Oakland defense that ranked in the bottom 10 in football with an opponent yards-per-attempt average of 4.5. Denver’s feeble running game rocked that Oakland run D on Sunday, so a healthy Miller could have a field day.
Final (important) thought
I keep hearing that “if Matt McGloin isn’t able to play,” the Raiders will “have to start Connor Cook.” But am I crazy in thinking that Oakland might be better off with Cook regardless of McGloin’s status?
Opposing defenses know what to expect from McGloin. He’s on tape, and it isn’t pretty. He’s made seven NFL starts, losing six of them. By the time these teams start practicing this week, a very good Houston defense will have seen each of McGloin’s 277 career pass attempts.
Meanwhile, Cook has taken just 31 NFL snaps, so the surprise element can’t be ignored. It’s a big reason fourth-round rookie Dak Prescott took the league by storm this season. Carson Wentz had a 103.5 passer rating in his first four NFL starts, Cody Kessler had a 96.1 rating in his first six starts and even mid-round Patriots rookie Jacoby Brissett had three interception-free performances when Tom Brady was suspended to start the season.
Cook was undoubtedly better than McGloin when they both played in a Week 17 loss to the Broncos, so you’d have to think he has a good shot at being better than a less-than-100-percent McGloin Saturday in Houston. This is a guy who was drafted before Prescott — one who many thought had first-round potential during his time at Michigan State.
Is Cook going to lead the Raiders to the Super Bowl? Probably not, but McGloin’s chances might not be any better. Oakland would be better-served rolling the dice on the more mysterious, more talented Cook. At this point, what have the Raiders got to lose?
Prediction: The quarterbacks make this tough to predict, but the Texans are dealing with slightly less late-season tumult. I’m not convinced they have the ability to pull away, but I think they have enough of an edge to win a close, sloppy game in Houston. Texans 20, Raiders 17
