A jarring and unexpected New York Giants playoff run requires several ingredients: Eli Manning, a top-notch defense and victories over the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl and the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
Manning is here, the defense gave up an NFC-low 17.8 points per game, the Patriots are the AFC’s top seed, and the Giants are about to kick off their first playoff appearance since 2011 against Green Bay at Lambeau. That’s where they won in overtime in the 2007 NFC championship game, two weeks before slaying Goliath in Super Bowl XLII, and it’s where they won again in the 2011 divisional playoffs, three weeks before once again upsetting the Pats in Super Bowl XLVI.
Now, this is a very different Giants team. No Tom Coughlin, no Justin Tuck. Nobody from 2007 except Manning and long snapper Zak DeOssie. Nobody from 2011 except those two, Victor Cruz, Jason Pierre-Paul and Mark Herzlich.
Still, the history alone makes this the game of the weekend.
Five things you need to know
1. Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in a league with a lot of hot quarterbacks. Last seven weeks? Eighteen touchdowns, zero interceptions and a 120.0 passer rating. The Packers won the last six of those games, needing every one of them in order to come back and capture the NFC North crown from Detroit. The 33-year-old has finally found a groove with top target Jordy Nelson while getting the most out of a depleted backfield. He’s made Ty Montgomery into a household name, he’s turned Davante Adams’ career around and he’s got tight end Jared Cook playing the best football of his career. Rodgers appears as though he’s on a mission, which should scare everybody outside of Wisconsin.
2. But what makes this matchup so good is the two-time MVP is going up against one of the hottest and most talented defenses in football. Still feels weird saying that when you consider how bad the Giants D was as recently as last year, but general manager Jerry Reese went out and spent like a trillion dollars on elite defensive players Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins in the 2016 offseason, and all three have delivered in a major way. In terms of DVOA, Football Outsiders ranked the New York defense behind only the historically good Broncos in 2016. They were the only defense in the league to allow touchdowns less than 40 percent of the time in the red zone (only four other defenses were below 50 percent), and they had a league-high 22 takeaways during the final 10 games of the season. This is the epitome of unstoppable force vs. immovable object.
3. The Packers beat the Giants 23-16 in Week 5, but a lot has changed since then. The New York defense didn’t really start dominating until November, and the G-Men have lost just twice since that Oct. 9 matchup. But Rodgers wasn’t himself then either. Jenkins intercepted him twice in that game and the offense was out of sync. They turned it around in late-October but an injury-ravaged defense still prevented them from getting hot as a team until that unit stopped consistently surrendering 30-plus points per game in late-November. When it all came together, they destroyed the Eagles on the road, smothered the division-winning Texans and Seahawks at home and took care of business in three consecutive divisional games to wrap up the regular season.
4. Problem for Green Bay is the injury bug has returned. They were at their worst this year when top corners Quinten Rollins and Damarious Randall were hurt, and now both are again dealing with injuries. Already without Sam Shields in the secondary as well as Eddie Lacy and James Starks on the offensive side of the ball, it’s amazing they’re still alive and in contention.
5. Problem for New York is that offense might not be capable of exploiting Green Bay’s injuries on D. The Giants are just the second team in the last 38 years to make the playoffs despite scoring fewer than 30 points in all 16 of their games. The running game ranked 30th in football with a yards-per-attempt average of just 3.5, which has caused Manning’s numbers to drop off across the board. The 35-year-old relies too heavily on star receiver Odell Beckham Jr., which probably won’t cut it against a defense that will still apply plenty of pressure. Clay Matthews and Nick Perry are getting healthier, Mike Daniels is a stud and safeties Morgan Burnett and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix have both excelled as the season has progressed. So don’t expect the Giants to hit that 30-point plateau this week, either.
Prediction: Fireworks, and a close finish to boot. Both teams have multiple playmakers on both sides of the ball (I didn’t even mention Landon Collins and Julius Peppers!) and both quarterbacks have done big things in big games. It’s a hell of a matchup and one that could go either way, but I expect Rodgers and Co. to prevail and keep that hot streak going at home. Packers 30, Giants 27
