If you read about the playoff picture after week 8, you may have noticed something peculiar in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills are currently the second seed in the AFC; while the Patriots are the 6 seed. As the vast majority of you know, there’s only 6 spots in the playoffs for each conference. The Patriots currently hold the tie-breaker against the Baltimore Ravens who are also 5-2. With such a close race for the wild-card spots in the AFC, we have to ask. Could the New England Patriots miss the playoffs in 2011?
To determine the likelihood of the Patriots missing the playoffs, you have to first identify the most likely scenario in which this would happen, and that’s the situation I alluded to in the opening paragraph. If the Bills win the division and the Ravens either win the tie-breaker with the Patriots or have a better record outright, the Patriots could actually be sitting on their couch in January watching 12 other teams playing for the Lombardi Trophy.
Even under that scenario, we also have to consider the Cincinnati Bengals as part of the mix. They, like the Patriots, Bills, and Ravens, are 5-2. It’s still too early to tell, but it would appear that tie-breakers in the AFC may be more important than ever, and we’re already seeing that play out across the conference.
One of the primary factors working in favor of the Patriots is that the AFC North controls 3 potential playoff teams. That also means that those teams will tend to beat up on each other. For the Patriots to miss the playoffs, it would seem that the Bengals, Steelers, and the Ravens would have to finish ahead of the Patriots. At this point, the Steelers certainly look like the team to beat in that division, and they host the Ravens this weekend. The Ravens then will travel to Seattle, for what should be an easy win, before coming home to host the Bengals. Are you seeing the problem here? It’s likely that one or two of the AFC North teams will get beat out of the playoffs by teams in their own division.
The other team in the mix for preventing New England’s trip to the playoffs is the division leading Bills. I think we’re all past considering the Bills’ quick start a “fluke.” It seems pretty clear that they’re a true to form contender, and they have already beat the Patriots once this season. In all reality, they’ll probably have to beat the Patriots in New England in week 17 to secure the division title. It’s no small task, but it does set up an epic game that could even become a winner-take-all contest. The Bills are hosting the Jets this weekend in a game they should probably win. The Jets’ offense is awful, and the Bills should have enough weapons to score with some consistency against the Jets’ defense. They follow that game by playing at Dallas, another inconsistent team, and by traveling to South Beach to play the win-less Dolphins.
With so many of the Patriots’ competitors playing rough schedules in the coming weeks, it would appear that the Patriots could glide into the playoffs without many problems, that is, until you look at their schedule. They host the Giants this weekend. While the NFC East isn’t as stacked as it has been in years past, it still is fielding three highly competitive teams this season, and the Giants lead the bunch. Following that game, the Patriots play at New York against their most hated rivals, the New York Jets. Then, the host the suddenly formidable Chiefs (I credit the beard for their turn around). After that gauntlet, they go to Philadelphia to play the dream team. There will be no “gliding into the playoffs” for the Patriots this season. Their schedule is every bit as difficult as any of the other teams playing for a wild-card spot or divisional title.
So, what’s the verdict? Do I have faith in Bill Belichick and the Patriots to continue to make the playoffs year after year? Yes, but it won’t be easy. The Patriots aren’t as dominate this season as they have been in the past, and it’s shown in many games. They should have been beaten by Dallas, but Rob Ryan’s defense couldn’t get a stop when it mattered most. They blew a huge lead against the Bills, a game that may become more and more important as the season moves along, and they were dominated from start to finish against the Pittsburgh Steelers in a game that I thought was a good match-up for the Patriots. All that being said, they still have the best [active] quarterback in the NFL, and they have one of the best coaches in the game. It won’t be easy to make the playoffs this season, but I still expect them to win their division and make the playoffs. Unlike previous years, however, I won’t be completely dumbfounded if they fail to do so, but hey, that’s just one guy’s opinion.
