With the bright lights of the Super Bowl dying down, we turn our attention to the long NFL offseason, which won’t end until teams start reporting for training camp in late July. Here are 5 questions that warrant your attentions this offseason.
1. What kind of deal is waiting for Peyton Manning once he reaches the open market?
Not the blockbuster that his career credentials would seem to merit. Not with him soon turning 36 and coming off three neck surgeries, amid the ongoing drama of whether the needed nerve regeneration will ever take place and allow him to regain the arm strength and stamina necessary to play quarterback at the highest of levels. At this point, everything about Manning’s future is a question mark, including the where, the when and, most importantly, the matter of what he has left.
Though the $28 million March 8 bonus payment the Colts owe him is the ultimate deadline, sometime this month he and team owner Jim Irsay will meet and figure out how to best part ways after 14 years. That will set off a bidding war of sorts, but a cautious one. Manning is reportedly going to get interest from teams like Miami, Arizona, Washington, Seattle, the Jets and others, but when he finally picks a new team, he’ll almost certainly receive an incentive-laden contract with a modest base salary, but one that will escalate in pay depending on his playing time, statistical benchmarks and victories earned.
We know Manning wants to play in 2012, and we know there will be teams more than willing to give him every opportunity to do so. What we don’t know, and maybe won’t know for months, is can he play anymore? That’s the biggest mystery of all, and the answers to all the other questions ultimately will be irrelevant if Manning doesn’t prove capable of returning to at least a semblance of the pace-setting form he has displayed in the NFL from 1998 on.
2. How many teams will really be involved in the Matt Flynn sweepstakes?
Miami, Seattle and Washington would seem the most motivated to pursue the former Green Bay backup quarterback in free agency, and that comes with the premise that for the time being I’m penciling in Robert Griffin III to the Browns in the draft, either in the No. 2 (via trade) or No. 4 slot. Of course, Peyton Manning’s landing spot could affect this list, particularly if the Dolphins acquire No. 18. In that scenario, it’d be hard to see Flynn signing on in Miami, given that he’s ready to start for someone and wouldn’t be interested in hanging around to see how the Manning saga would turn in South Florida.
But the presence of new Dolphins head coach and former Packers OC Joe Philbin in Miami makes all the sense in the world for Flynn. The Redskins are another team that desperately needs a ready-made starting upgrade in 2012. As for Seattle, well, the Seahawks had pretty good luck with the last Packers backup quarterback they acquired (see Hasselbeck, Matt), so there’s some good karma and history at play with their potential interest.
3. Which big-name free agents won’t really be “free?”
If you think the Saints are letting NFL Offensive Player of the Year Drew Brees get out of town, you haven’t been paying attention for the past six years or so. If you believe 49ers quarterback Alex Smith really will be available next month, then you probably missed the fact that Smith is caddying for his head coach and BFF Jim Harbaugh in Thursday’s first round of the Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Ray Rice, Matt Forte, Marshawn Lynch and Wes Welker? I’ll give you odds that all four either wear the franchise tag at some point in March, or they’ll have new long-term contracts in Baltimore, Chicago, Seattle and New England, respectively.
It just makes economic sense in terms of this year’s franchise tag salary levels. The franchise tag is down to just $7.7 million for running backs, and $9.4 million for receivers. Rice, Forte, Lynch and Welker are well worth keeping around for another year at those numbers. And Brees and Smith are far too valuable to the Saints and 49ers, respectively, to let them get a sniff of the open market.
4. Who will be the biggest prize in free agency?
Houston defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams probably isn’t going to coax the Texans into a franchise tag designation, given that his number would be more than $22 million and the team has some cap issues this offseason. That means a 27-year-old pass rusher with 53 sacks in less than six full seasons will reach the market, and that could kick up a little dust from teams fighting over him.
On the other hand, Williams might prefer to stay with the ascending Texans and work with the team to make that happen. He had five sacks in five games playing outside linebacker in Wade Phillips’ 3-4 defense before a torn pectoral muscle ended his 2011 season. Houston, of course, didn’t fall off a cliff without Williams, finishing second in overall defense and winning the franchise’s first playoff game ever.
There are pass-rush-needy teams that could come after Williams and make it very difficult for Houston to keep the player who went first overall in 2006. Three that come quickly to mind: Buffalo, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. In addition, the 3-4 Packers are hungry for another pass rusher at outside linebacker, although the big free agency splash hasn’t been the Green Bay way under Ted Thompson.
5. What raging debate will consume the pre-draft scouting season?
If you thought the Cam Newton-Blaine Gabbert-Jake Locker competition made for some interesting drama last spring, you ain’t seen nothing yet. The Andrew Luck vs. Robert Griffin III discussion is 10 times more intriguing and is just getting started. I spoke to the draft’s top two quarterbacks last week in Indianapolis, and they both clearly want to be No. 1. But while Luck approached most topics with caution, RG3 is not the type to back down from a fight or politely tip-toe when it comes to his intentions. He believes the momentum is on his side, and he’s determined to show the Colts why he’s the best bet in the coming 11 weeks or so.
“Perception is reality, and at the beginning of the year I wasn’t on many radars,” Griffin said. “I did have a lot more ground to cover than he did. [Luck] was the de facto Heisman winner and the de facto No. 1 pick. We already took one of those from him and we plan to continue to go out there and do that. Whether it’s with the first pick in the draft, a playoff win, or who goes to the first Super Bowl.”
See what I mean? Get ready to take sides on this one, because everyone probably will at some point. As polished and attractive a passing prospect as Luck is, Griffin is going to win over some teams with his intelligence, superb accuracy and Newton-like athleticism. The pocket passer versus the running threat who can also throw the rock is the argument that’s going to dominate this year’s draft coverage.
