Every year in late April or early May we go through NFL draft revisionist history. We wonder what would happen if, say, the Miami Dolphins selected Matt Ryan in 2008 as they should have. Or how the NFL would be a much different place if the Oakland Raiders weren’t absolutely horrible at drafting, player evaluation, and generally being a competent organization.
When we go through that annual exercise while looking back on the 2014 draft, it’s becoming increasingly clear the burning question will be tied to Sammy Watkins.
Mostly, we’ll be asking this: why did the Bills sacrifice part of their future to select Watkins in a draft overflowing with wide receiver talent?
The decision seemed foolish at the time, and now as Watkins’ first season winds down it’s looking a lot worse through no fault of his own. Watkins has been terrific, sure, but so have eight other receivers in his draft class, five of whom weren’t even first-round picks.
The Bills were so desperate to support their struggling sophomore quarterback E.J. Manuel with an explosive deep threat on the outside that they threw themselves at Watkins. General manager Doug Whaley moved up five spots (from Buffalo’s original perch at No. 9 to No. 5) in a trade with the Cleveland Browns.
There was immediate joy and euphoria among the Bills Mafia, because that’s what happens when a team lands one of the most athletically-gifted players in a draft. But the cost? The Bills sent their first- and fourth-round picks in 2015 to the Browns.
That’s already painful, but the risk would have been somewhat tolerable had Watkins helped Manuel in his growth. Instead the opposite happened and Manuel regressed. He was eventually benched in favor of journeyman backup Kyle Orton.
Now whatever dreaming playoff hopes the Bills have rest in Orton’s arm, and not the quarterback reached for with a first-round pick in 2013. So suddenly Buffalo is in need of a long-term direction at the most important offensive position. But without a first-round pick they’ll have to either dive into the always toxic quarterback free agency pool (Brian Hoyer? Michael Vick? Ryan Mallett? Overpay for Mark Sanchez? Puke?), take a chance on second-tier talent next spring, or wait until the 2016 draft.
Even that would be easier to shrug off if Watkins was worth the price paid relative to his draft class peers, and if he was on an entirely different level. But with rookie receivers dominating the league in 2014 and doing superhuman things, a deep feeling of regret should be setting in for Whaley.
Again, Watkins is having a fine season himself. That can’t be emphasized enough considering the pit of despair that is his quarterback situation, making his 684 receiving yards on 48 catches with five touchdowns mighty impressive. But go take a glance at the NFL’s receiving leaderboard.
In the top 20 right now are Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin. In Week 11 Evans became the youngest player in league history to record over 200 receiving yards in a game. That came at the end of a three-week stretch when Evans posted an incredible 458 total yards with five touchdowns. His per-catch average during those games? 21.8 yards.
A reminder: Evans came off the board three picks after Watkins.
Had the Bills stayed at No. 9 both Watkins and Evans likely would have been gone. But Benjamin would have been available. Despite Cam Newton’s struggles and injuries, the Carolina Panthers rookie has been a red-zone vacuum, high-pointing the ball and often making acrobatic catches. He has eight touchdown receptions, only one behind the likes of Demaryius Thomas and Jordy Nelson.
A reminder: Benjamin came off the board 24 picks after Watkins.
Then there’s Odell Beckham Jr., the one-handed catch legend. That spine-bending, three-finger cradling grab against the Cowboys in Week 12 made Beckham a divine figure immediately. Of course, his spectacular play extends beyond one absurd human trick. Beckham has appeared in only seven games, yet he still has 609 receiving yards with three 40-plus yard catches.
A reminder: Beckham came off the board eight picks after Watkins.
The 2014 rookie receiving class is already the first to have seven wideouts with over 500 yards in their first season. One of those seven is the Eagles’ Jordan Matthews, who suddenly unleashed in Week 10 with 138 yards and two touchdowns on seven catches. Overall he’s right behind Evans and Benjamin with seven touchdowns while becoming a consistent deep threat in Chip Kelly’s offense.
A reminder: Matthews came off the board 38 picks after Watkins.
It gets worse for Watkins’ trade price as we go even deeper. Arizona Cardinals receiver John Brown has quickly become Bruce Arians’ latest T.Y. Hilton model, with his speed often utilized deep from the slot. Brown is also among that 500-plus yard group of rookies, and he’s had three games with a per-catch average over 20.0.
A reminder: Brown came off the board 87 picks after Watkins.
I could keep going for a while longer here, noting Martavis Bryant (118th overall) and his six touchdowns on only 16 receptions after not seeing the field until Week 7. Or Miami’s Jarvis Landry (63rd overall), who will soon join that 500-yard rookie club. Then there’s Allen Robinson (61st overall), the Jaguars’ rookie who’s averaging a solid 54.8 yards per game while, you know, playing for the Jaguars.
The Bills paid a premium at a time when the supply of rookie receivers capable of making an immediate impact could easily meet the demand. And now they’ll be left scavenging at the bottom of the quarterback market, where supply is always low and demand is exceedingly high.
