With only four weeks left in the 2014 NFL regular season, almost nothing is completely settled in the AFC. Outside of the Indianapolis Colts who will clearly win the AFC South, it is tough to say anything else is set in stone. However, the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos are in prime position to make the postseason unless a complete collapse occurs. Where they end up seeding-wise is another story entirely.
Let’s take a look at how the AFC playoff picture stacks up:
1. New England Patriots (9-3)
2. Denver Broncos (9-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)
4. Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
5. San Diego Chargers (8-4)
6. Miami Dolphins (7-5)
In the hunt
7. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)
8. Buffalo Bills (7-5)
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
11. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
Alright, this is a train wreck at the bottom, so let’s start up top. The Patriots win the tiebreaker over the Broncos via their head-to-head win. The Colts can actually wrap up the AFC South this week with a win over the Browns and a loss by the Texans.
Now, the sixth seed is currently occupied by the Dolphins with five other teams tied at 7-5 behind them. At the bottom of this cluster are three AFC North teams. The ties are always broken within the division first, and the Ravens win the breakers against the Browns (head-to-head) and the Steelers (overall head-to-head between the three). Miami has a better record within the AFC East than Buffalo, knocking the Bills into the hunt.
The Chiefs actually beat the Dolphins head-to-head in Week 3, but lose the tiebreaker based on conference games (when more than one team is tied for a wild-card spot, conference records factor in). Should only Kansas City and Miami be tied for a playoff spot later this season, the Chiefs would win via the head-to-head win.
This week is going to provide plenty of clarity in the AFC. Indianapolis is at Cleveland, and with a win could all but end the Browns’ hopes of making the postseason. It is going to take 10 wins to qualify, and with trips still to Carolina and Baltimore, along with a home game against the Bengals, Cleveland would be in deep trouble.
Buffalo travels to Denver this week, beginning a stretch where the Bills play the Broncos, Packers, Raiders and Patriots. The light is on in Buffalo, but it is flickering with that schedule.
Then we have a giant matchup in Miami with the Dolphins and Ravens. If Miami loses, it is almost knocked out with a trip to New England awaiting it in Week 15. Baltimore could actually lose and still rebound with three games against the Texans, Jaguars and Browns left. However, the Ravens would have lost all six games in the conference, putting them in tough position to win tiebreakers.
Another massive game is the Bengals hosting the Steelers. With a win, Cincinnati will maintain at least a 1.5-game lead in the AFC North. If Pittsburgh loses, it falls to 7-6 and travels to the Falcons next week before hosting the Chiefs and Bengals to end the season. It would be very difficult for Pittsburgh to hit 10 wins.
Kansas City travels to take on the Cardinals this week, a game that seemed much more daunting a month ago. The Chiefs then host the Raiders before visiting the Steelers and hosting the Chargers. The schedule is not easy, but two games at Arrowhead gives Kansas City a chance to find 10 wins and make the playoffs.
San Diego, although 8-4, faces perhaps the toughest road to the postseason. The Chargers host New England on Sunday Night Football before welcoming in the Broncos, then hitting the road to face the 49ers and Chiefs. San Diego will have to win one of its next three and topple Kansas City to make the playoffs in all likelihood.
Week 14 should be a blast, and help break up the logjam in the wild-card standings.
