The state of the first-round running back is a commentary on more than just a position. It speaks to organizational philosophies and values. It shows the team-building priorities in a league increasingly driven by passing. And it reflects a hesitancy to invest heavily in a player whose football life is, at best, fleeting.
Let’s call it the Trent Richardson-ing of the NFL, and it might be changing.
We’re now four days away from a Super Bowl in which one participant will field a starting running back who cleared waivers and was signed by the New England Patriots in November. Since then LeGarrette Blount has averaged 4.7 yards per carry, and ran for 148 yards with three touchdowns during the AFC Championship Game.
Blount represents the modern, salary-cap era NFL approach to the running back position. Consider: Of the top 10 running backs by rushing yards in 2014, only one (Marshawn Lynch) was a first-round pick. Arian Foster is a regular among that group and he went undrafted, while Justin Forsett was a seventh-round pick
The game’s grandest stage this weekend will be a contrast between that more common, economical approach to the running back position, and the Seattle Seahawks on the other side as they prepare to absorb Marshawn Lynch’s $8.5 million cap hit next season. We can thank Richardson for delivering a near death blow to the latter approach, and to the collective wallet of his running back peers.
Richardson has averaged 3.3 yards throughout his career after being selected during the first round in 2012. The Cleveland Browns quickly shipped him off to the Indianapolis Colts, and they somehow received a first-round pick in return. Now after he was suspended throughout the Colts’ two-game playoff run it seems the end is near, and a prospect who was once deemed worthy of the third-overall selection three years ago will already be searching for his third team.
With no guaranteed money left that feels inevitable, especially after Richardson was outplayed by Boom Herron and Zurlon Tipton, a six rounder and an undrafted rookie.
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But a shift in backfield building may still be on the horizon, despite Richardson’s best efforts.
Lynch has led a Seahawks rushing offense that ranked first in the NFL during the regular season, and it wasn’t close. They averaged 172.6 rushing yards per game, while the Dallas Cowboys were well behind at 147.1. The Cowboys also won a playoff game (and should have won two) on the strength of DeMarco Murray’s league leading 1,845 rushing yards.
Unique talents like Lynch warrant a substantial draft investment regardless of their position. Yet in 2013 a 49-year streak of at least one running back selected in the first round ended, and in 2014 we waited all the way until the 54th overall pick for a running back to come off the board.
That’s been a product of both front-office strategy toward the position, and the lack of Lynch-like prospects. The latter problem has a solution.
Both Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon and Georgia’s Todd Gurley are first-round caliber talents in this year’s draft. Gurley averaged an incredibly 7.4 yards per carry in 2014. Any apprehension about his torn ACL should only serve as a potential discount later in the opening round. At 6’1” and 226 pounds he can be a Lynch clone, and possibly his replacement too.
Meanwhile, Gordon’s 2,587 rushing yards in 2014 now stands as the second-highest single-season collegiate total, and against Nebraska he set a new single-game record with 408 yards and four touchdowns.
Early mock drafts have placed both Gordon and Gurley in the opening round. They can (and should) help the first-round running back to rise again as the league searches for some sense of offensive balance.
