Every week, schemes and circumstances combine to take a fantasy sure thing and turn him into a wasted roster spot. Sometimes these can be foreseen, but sometimes injuries or unexpected matchups conspire to ruin what felt like a perfectly sound lineup decision. The key is to understand why it happened, and know what to do next.
Last week, we encouraged you to hold steady on Big Ben while running away from Matt Cassel; we suggested flexing LeGarrette Blount and dealing Shonn Greene; we called Vincent Jackson a good start (an understatement) and Chad Ochocinco cuttable (there, too). However, we missed on Matt Ryan, calling him (and his 4 TDs) “benchable.”
Let’s take a look at Week 2’s MIAs, starting with a repeat offender.
Running Backs
Chris Johnson (53 yards rushing, 3 recs, 12 yards). In week 1, coach Munchak held Johnson out of the action for long stretches, citing his lack conditioning. For week two, though, he promised “20-25 touches.” He did good by CJ2K on that front, feeding him the ball 27 times. But Baltimore’s defense loaded up to take him out of the game. Focus less on the result, and more on the process. Matt Hasselbeck and Kenny Britt proved that the Titans’ pass game is worth respecting. Expect another healthy workload against a much easier opponent in Week 3, and a return to form. Analysis: must-start.
Arian Foster (33 yards rushing, 2 recs, 7 yards). Injury experts such as Will Carroll warned that the heavy load Foster ran could affect him negatively this year. And that hamstring strains like the one Foster suffered in the preseason could linger. Still, though, when he was cleared to play, he was expected to start and get the lion’s share of carries. Instead, his handcuff Ben Tate dominated the day again. With another week of missed practice, Foster owners are worrying. As well they should. Analysis: find a safe spot to stash him long term.
Felix Jones (25 yards rushing, 1 catch for 5 yards, 1 fumble). This was supposed to be Felix’s breakout year. Without competition for carries, Jones had a fantastic preseason, leading him to be “sleepered” his way up ADP charts. Waaay up. To the point where a lot of people severely overdrafted this perennial fantasy disappointment. Now with a separated shoulder and an unhealthy 2.7 yards per carry, those owners are paying the price. Suddenly, fans in Dallas are asking about rookie Demarco Murray… Analysis: You should never sell low, but….
Reggie Bush (7 touches, 21 yards). The running back tandem in Miami is as infuriating as ever. After Bush stole Daniel Thomas’ thunder in week 1 with 56 receiving yards and a TD, Thomas returned the favor by completely taking over the gameplan in week 2. At this point, Bush should only be considered a flex start against poor pass defenses like the Patriots. Cleveland was respectable against the pass last year, and has been positively stingy this year. Analysis: Sit.
Quarterbacks
Jay Cutler (1 TD, 244 yards, 6 sacks, 1 fumble). For as brilliant and efficient as Cutler’s week 1 was, his week 2 was just painful. For him and his fantasy owners alike. The Saints blitzed him mercilessly, and Mike Martz showed no interest in protecting him. Asked if he could survive the season taking this kind of abuse, Cutler candidly told the media: “I don’t know.” In the league’s early going, passing offenses have been ahead of defenses. I expect that to reverse course as the season continues, with borderline passers like Cutler the first to be affected. Analysis: Benchable.
Joe Flacco (1 TD, 2 INT, 197 yards, 3 sacks, 1 fumble). Flacco was a part of the group of “value buys” at quarterback along with Flacco, Roethlisberger and Ryan. So far, he hasn’t provided much value. Those still expecting the Ravens to become more of a passing team with the additions of Anquan Boldin and Lee Evans are still waiting. In the meantime, Baltimore continues to be one of the run-heaviest teams in the league. Moreover, Mike Clay of ProFootballFocus.com compares Flacco’s accuracy this year to Jimmy Clausen’s last year. However, if he’s going to produce, this week against the Rams’ injury ravaged secondary is the time to do it. Analysis: Playable, barely.
Chad Henne (1 TD, 1 INT, 170 yards, 2 sacks). Henne, undrafted in most leagues, was a very popular pickup and play in week two. However, his severe and immediate dip in production should be a lesson to all — don’t be seduced by matchup-friendly stats. A guy who averages little better than 200 yards per game passing over his career should be expected to have days like last Monday. He shouldn’t be expected to regularly double that production, as he did against the Patriots’ still-hapless secondary. Henne didn’t suddenly become a magic man, even with Brandon Marshall at the top of his game. Analysis: Easy come, easy go.
Wide Receivers & Tight Ends
Antonio Gates (nada). This is why tight ends, even the elites, can be maddening fantasy plays. Antonio Gates was on the field for 64 of the Chargers’ 72 offensive plays in week 2. He was matched up against the sieve-like Patriots pass defense. Philip Rivers targeted him once… and that ball was intercepted. This followed a 14-target, 8-catch debut that suggested the best was yet to come. Maybe it still is, but as RotoWorld’s Evan Silva points out, the Patriots had other plans last week, double- and triple-covering him to take him out of the game. Gates has another intriguing matchup this week against the shell-shocked Chiefs, who have given up 3 TDs to TEs in two weeks. Analysis: Still a worthy start. (If healthy).
Lance Moore (1 catch, 6 yards). Speaking of health, Lance Moore does not have it. The Saints’ breakout slot receiver from last year was still bothered by a groin pull and took the field for only 1/3 of the team’s offensive plays. The good news is that he was targeted 4 times, which translates to 10-12 targets in a full day’s work, levels he hit repeatedly last season. The bad news is that he caught only one ball for you for six yards. Analysis: Have to stash him until he proves he’s healthy.
DeSean Jackson (2 catches, 21 yards, 6 return yards). I include the return yards for those rare leagues that count them for individual players, rather than a team DST. DeSean is almost first-round-worhty in that format, but he has always been among the streakiest scorers in fantasy. The bigger question is not whether he plays, but whether his quarterback does. Michael Vick loves throwing his way, but #7 hasn’t yet been cleared to play on Monday. Analysis: Still start-worthy, but temper expectations.
Vernon Davis (2 catches, 18 yards). Vernon Davis, quite simply, is an elite talent that is no longer an elite fantasy option. The signs of offensive doom have been apparent for a while, but it was hoped that Jim Harbaugh would revitalize him. As CSN’s Matt Maiocco revealed, the 49ers’ game plan against Dallas called for Davis to be a blocking-first player. Harbaugh later said that he wants a “50-50” split between the pass and the run. Unless something changes, that kind of old-school approach spells fantasy doom for Davis. Analysis: Look elsewhere for now.
Brandon Pettigrew (1 catch, 7 yards). The headlines are focusing on Brandon Pettigrew’s shoulder injury, which briefly knocked him from the game against Kansas City. The untold story is that Matt Stafford appears to have found a new best friend in Tony Scheffler. However, neither the injury nor the internal rivalry for attention should be that concerning in an offense this potent. Like Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in New England, there should be plenty of points for all. Analysis: Hold steady.
