It was that rare week in fantasy football when most of the studs that played came through with nice performances. The missing in action list from Week 5 contains a lot of names that are gamble plays, inherently more risky.
That said, which one of these players that disappeared in Week 5 are likely to bounce back in Week 6? Let’s take a look.
Quarterbacks:
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Matt Ryan vs Green Bay: 167 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs, 1 sack. Green Bay’s pass defense ranked 30th in the NFL, but don’t tell that to Matt Ryan, who struggled to find his rhythm for most of the afternoon. As we’ve discussed, the Falcons went all-in to find Ryan a new weapon on offense, presumably allowing Atlanta to stay in and win a shootout like this was supposed to be. The Atlanta offense has shifted dramatically to the pass, passing on 67% of their downs this year, an increase over last year’s 58% pass-run balance. But Ryan’s stats haven’t received an appreciable bump.
They may this week against Carolina, even with Julio Jones sidelined. There are two schools of thought on Ryan: either he’s just not that good, or he’s still gradually progressing as a quarterback. I tend to fall into the latter category. He may never join the game’s elites, but trust the offensive design and his ability as a still-young quarterback to take steps forward. Advice: Still startable.
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Ryan Fitzpatrick vs Philadelphia: 193 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 sack. This is the second consecutive disappointing game, fantasy-wise, for Fitzpatrick. Undrafted in many leagues, he was a hot waiver wire add after lighting up the Chiefs, Raiders and Patriots in the season’s opening weeks. Now he faces an uneven Giants defense before heading into the bye — a critical week to determine his ownership levels. The good news for Fitz owners is that he doesn’t face Nnamdi Asomugha this week.
The Eagles secondary forced Fitzpatrick into a very short passing game focused on his running backs and slot receivers, with most of his targets either behind the line of scrimmage or within the first ten yards of the LOS. In other words, this was game plan, not a struggle. Expect a return to deep-passing form and more targets for Stevie Johnson and David Nelson this week against the Giants’ injury-depleted secondary and linebacking crew. Advice: Good, not great start.
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Josh Freeman vs San Francisco: 187 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 2 sacks. As we said in this morning’s article, the time for Josh Freeman is now … but his supporting cast will have to step up as well. With LeGarrette Blount out, young Mike Williams will have to step up. Currently, he is among the league’s least productive receivers on a yards-per-route basis, as measured by ProFootballFocus. Williams is confident of a quick return to form against the Saints’ aggressive defense. We aren’t. Advice: Ride the pine.
Running Backs:
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Darren McFadden vs Houston: 68 total yards, 0 TDs. It won’t show up in the stat sheet, but DMC actually had a pretty typical day for him against the Texans — it’s just that no other player in fantasy lost as many points to penalties as he did. Four yellow flags took away 53 rushing yards and a 23-yard reception, as well as a first-and-goal from the 1 that would have been a likely scoring opportunity. This is a pretty safe call against Cleveland, but… Advice: Still a must-start.
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Stevan Ridley vs NY Jets: 13 yards rushing, 0 TDs. Ridley made waves after making the most of eleven touches in Week 4 against Oakland, cracking 100 total yards and scoring a rushing touchdown. He then promptly disappeared from the game plan in Week 5, as BJGE romped. I could have profiled these same two players in reverse last week. Any running back in New England is a speculative play at best, subject to the whims of Belichick’s game plan. A toe injury suffered by Green-Ellis complicates matters, but not by much.
It’s worth noting that the powerful, straight-line running of Green-Ellis was the natural choice against the Jets’ gimmicky 3-1-7 defensive alignment (designed to clog passing lanes and all but ignore the run). Even if Dallas’ Rob Ryan were tempted to take a page from his Rex’s playbook, he probably tore it up after watching the Pats’ ground game chew up the Jets. Dallas’ run defense is top-ranked in the league, so Rob’s doing just fine on his own, thanks. Advice: Bench ’em both this week.
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Dexter McCluster vs Indianapolis: 18 total yards, 0 TDs. After Jamaal Charles’ bad-luck injury, desperate fantasy owners glommed onto both Thomas Jones and Dexter McCluster as replacements, and been largely disappointed. Now, they are utterly dismayed after an unknown special-teamer named Jackie Battle ran off 119 yards on 19 carries, while McCluster remains little more than a gadget player.
The real problem in Kansas City is that coach Todd Haley is notoriously stingy with workhorse-like reps. Even if McCluster wasn’t 150 pounds soaking wet, he was doubtful to be trusted with enough touches to do serious damage in fantasy. Advice: Droppable in all but the deepest leagues.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends:
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Stevie Johnson: 29 yards, 0 TDs. See the Ryan Fitzpatrick entry above. Faces an enticing matchup against the leaky Giants secondary. Advice: Very startable.
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Vincent Jackson: 39 yards, 0 TDs. The Chargers offense, once a cornucopia of fantasy offerings, is becoming a very frustrating place for anyone aside from Ryan Mathews. The 2nd-year back is the only player getting consistently heavy work in the game plan. Philip Rivers’ numbers are up and down as the team drifts more toward the stat-killing “balanced attack,” and even when they’re up, Rivers’ targets tend to center on a single player.
Last week, it was Malcom Floyd working over the top and getting a game-high seven targets, which he turned into three big plays and a score. Meanwhile, VJax was relegated to underneath duty to escape the range of the Broncos’ Champ Bailey. Jackson sits on your bench over the bye, while owners contemplate whether to try and package him in a deal.
For what it’s worth, Pro Football Focus still rates Jackson as their 11th-rated WR the rest of the way. At this point, you’d be selling low. Advice: Hold on to him.
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Brandon Lloyd: 20 yards, 0 TDs. No fantasy player’s status is more in flux right now than Lloyd’s, as the Broncos begin the Tebow-ification of their roster. The 30-year-old breakout and his expiring contract are seen as very expendable, especially with Tebow’s underwhelming deep ball. However, the fact that he is on the trade block and has the potential of landing with Matt Hasselbeck in Tennessee, Cam Newton in Carolina, or even a reunion with Josh McDaniels in St Louis could very quickly vault Lloyd back to respectability. Advice: Hold until the trade deadline. If he doesn’t find a new home, keeping him is a risk.
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Dallas Clark / Dustin Keller: 7 yards apiece, 0 TDs. I combined these two struggling TE options into one very sad entry. Keller had a promising start to the season, but has been dragged down by Mark Sanchez’ complete loss of confidence (read: the Jets’ complete loss of ability to block for him) in recent weeks. Clark’s season has been a total loss — if there were insurance on fantasy players, his season would be totaled and you could get reimbursed. As is stands, the “drop” button is at the top of your page. Of the two, Keller has a better chance of bouncing back against a horrid Dolphins defense. Advice: Keller is a sleeper candidate, but only if you trust Sanchez.
