Ndamukong Suh tried to plead innocent to the charges of stomping on the Packers’ Evan Dietrich. But Judge Goodell had none of it, bringing his hammer down and sentencing the Lion to two weeks hard time. Maybe Suh should have pled insanity?
Hard time in the NFL is called wearing street clothes and consoling yourself with a slightly smaller mountain of cash than you had before. Suh’s two-game suspension will do little to change the player, who has been labeled “out of control” by a former college teammate. He has already spent more time visiting with Goodell than most schoolyard bullies do with the principal.
But Suh’s absence from the Detroit Lions’ front line will impact the fate of his team as they enter a critical stretch run, with the playoffs still within reach. During his suspension, the Lions face the Saints (a playoff-caliber opponent) and the Vikings (a must-win division opponent).
How will Detroit replace Suh? Hopefully, by slotting in a fully healthy Nick Fairley. Here’s how that might work.
Measuring Suh’s impact
While Ndamukong Suh isn’t racking up sack totals that he did last year, the fellows at Pro Football Focus will point out that his other pass-rushing metrics (pressures and QB hits) are equal or better than they were at this point last year. In fact, his 24 pressures lead the team.
Suh 2010: 41 sacks-hits-pressures / 997 snaps (4.1%)
Suh 2011: 31 sacks-hits-pressures / 559 snaps (5.5%)
In other words, even as teams are double-teaming him, he is still a disruptive presence against the passing game.
His short-term replacement is his long-term running-mate.
When the Lions drafted Nick Fairley, draftniks drooled over the prospect of pairing Fairley and Suh on the same line. But thanks to a lingering foot injury that has limited the freshman to 150 snaps, this just hasn’t happened. Fortunately for Detroit, Fairley is getting healthy just when his team needs him most. And his pass-rushing production is nearly equal to Suh’s:
Fairley 2011: 7 sacks-hits-pressures / 154 snaps (4.5%)
If the Lions are going to have a chance at slowing down the Saints, they will have to rely on the rookie to generate pass pressure up front. In another PFF metric, Drew Brees is one of the least-pressured quarterbacks in the NFL, feeling heat on only 27% of his dropbacks, and getting sacked on only 14%.
Two teams that were able to apply pressure up the gut? The Packers in Week 1, and the Rams in Week 7. Both teams were able to beat Brees and company.
What’s At Stake
If the playoffs started today, Detroit would be watching the games on TV. Every week is a must-win if they are going to overtake Atlanta or Chicago for a wildcard spot. That makes this a bad time for Suh to be sitting out, but it could potentially be a great time for their rookie to assert himself and claim a starting job, and be ready to slide over when Suh comes back.
