Every week the injury lists grow longer and longer, the names on them more significant and dismaying. This is the annual war of attrition that strips the gloss and color and pageantry from the NFL, and lays bare its brutal foundations: This is a game of violence. Of cracked ribs and torn ligaments and battered brains. The fields are now made of tougher stuff than the men who play on them, and the pragmatic answer for winning — as it always has been — is to have more guys that can play than the other team.
By this point in the season, stars rarely get to match up against stars. Instead, teams pit depth against depth and hope for the best. This week’s matchups are no different.
Tampa Bay at GREEN BAY (-14): Packers
Nobody has amassed talent better than Ted Thompson in Green Bay. Even if something were to happen to Aaron Rodgers — and the depth of capable offensive line talent all but assures it won’t — Matt Flynn is ready to come off the bench and operate this offense. Tampa, meanwhile, is scrambling to replace key players, and coming up short. Nowhere is this more apparent than up the middle on defense, where Mason Foster has a bum leg and is only a two-down linebacker in the middle, and Gerald McCoy has given way to Albert Haynesworth. Weakness up the gut is a death sentence against an offense like the Packers’.
Carolina at DETROIT (-7): Lions
Matthew Stafford is having the healthiest season of his NFL career, but as it turns out, one broken finger is one break too many. A break in his index finger on his throwing hand hasn’t knocked him out of the game, but it has disrupted his touch, leading to an ugly aerial display against Chicago last week. But Ron Rivera doesn’t coach Chicago’s D any more, he has this ragtag bunch of underachievers in Panthers teal instead. 9/10ths of Matt Stafford is more than enough here.
Dallas (-7.5) at WASHINGTON: Cowboys
It’s a divisional game, which are normally close affairs, and I’d like to take the Skins and the points here. But the Cowboys’ impressive depth at wide receiver and running back makes it hard to do. Jason Garrett has turned the oft-injured Laurent Robinson into a legitimate #2 receiver in the wake of Miles Austin’s injury, and Dez Bryant is emerging as a true number one at the same time. With the emergence of onetime rookie backup Demarco Murray, Garrett’s offensive machine is humming along nicely despite missing several week 1 parts.
Buffalo at MIAMI (-2): Bills (LOCK)
Matt Moore has impressed in Miami, looking more like the 2009 version of himself than the 2010 waste who lost his job to Jimmy Clausen. But there’s no way the Dolphins should be favored against the Bills, even though the shine is off Chan Gailey’s team. Buffalo reloaded their defensive line with the drafting of Marcel Dareus, and the SEC star should have a fine time in Miami’s backfield on a gorgeous day in South Florida.
Oakland (-1) at MINNESOTA: Raiders
Michael Bush has been a valuable depth player for some time, but now that he’s getting an extended audition, he may be earning top billing for himself down the road. His job as Darren McFadden’s understudy is very reminiscent of Michael Turner’s work as backup to Ladanian Tomlinson in San Diego. He isn’t as dynamic a player, but his tenacity and power as a runner more than make up for any athletic shortcomings.
Cincinnati at BALTIMORE (-7): Bengals
The Bengals’ depth will be sorely tested today, as AJ Green is out with a hyperextended knee, an injury that anyone who watched last week’s highlights got to see first-hand. Green contorted his body in space between two Pittsburgh defenders to make a fantastic game-tying touchdown catch, but his weight came down awkwardly on his plant leg, stiffening and torquing his knee. However, assuming Cincinnati’s offense can keep them in range, I have no doubt that Joe Flacco will make some series of awful plays to help keep the game close enough for discomfort. Sometimes depth isn’t enough.
Tennessee at ATLANTA (-6): Titans (UPSET)
Mike Munchak’s offense has been a collection of spare parts and unwanted players led by Matt Hasselbeck, but his patchwork offensive line has done an outstanding job of keeping the elder QB upright and unbroken. Of the QB class of 2011, Jake Locker is the great unknown on Tennessee’s bench. Atlanta lacks the defensive thumpers to put Locker in harm’s way, though, and Chris Johnson is doing a nice job of providing a jolt to his team by actually running like he used to. Atlanta sacrificed a lot of depth in the Julio Jones deal, and a lot of mojo in their failed overtime bid against the Saints last week. I think they’re ripe for an upset.
Jacksonville at CLEVELAND (PK): Jaguars
A rule of thumb: If you can’t point to any one thing a team does well, there’s no reason to pick them in a pick-em game. When Peyton Hillis or even Montario Hardesty was healthy, you used to be able to say “At least the Browns can run the ball.” But with Chris Ogbonnaya as your starter? No, not so much.
Arizona at SAN FRANCISCO (-9.5): 49ers
John Skelton has been a fantastic little story for Arizona, getting wins in his first two starts in relief of Kevin Kolb, and prompting the Cardinals’ coach to take a very cautious approach in bringing Kolb back. However, the 49ers have more wins than the two teams Skelton beat — combined. The happy story ends here in an easy win for San Fran.
Seattle at ST LOUIS (-1.5): Seahawks
Betting on Tarvaris Jackson over Sam Bradford makes me queasy, but betting on six large and healthy wide receivers over four cornerbacks (Josh Gordy, Rod Hood, Nate Ness and I could just make up a fourth name and you would never know the difference) who have less than 300 combined snaps on the season just makes sense. Steven Jackson is running through walls right now, but this will be one wall too many.
San Diego at CHICAGO (-3.5): Bears
Two teams with an opportunity to seize a moment on the season. Which one do you trust? The one that’s done it before. The Bears surprised everyone by riding a wave of momentum into the NFC Championship game last season. The Chargers surprise no one by consistently letting waves of momentum wash over them and tumble them into water.
Philadelphia at NEW YORK GIANTS (-4.5): Giants
Quite simply: Neither Mike Vick or Jeremy Maclin will play, and no matter how much depth the team might have elsewhere, when you depend on Vince Young or Mike Kafka to win games for you, you’re screwed. Giants get a second bye week.
Kansas City at NEW ENGLAND (-14.5): Patriots
Welcome to the NFL, Tyler Palko.
