This season of pickmaking had been a struggle already. But after a disastrous pickset last week, in which I got only three picks right and blew both my Lock and my Upset, I’m feeling downright lost. How can I trust my instincts, or my research, in the face of results like this?
I’m standing at 54-56-5 after eight weeks, and feel like everything I believe about the evolving trends of the season are wrong. Hell for a prognosticator is this metaphysical hell in which there are always two choices, and neither of them is right. (Ironically, this is Monte Hall’s idea of Heaven.)
So why not just go through and pick the opposite of my instincts? Certainly couldn’t do any worse, right? This week’s picks are my version of chicken salad on rye, untoasted, with potato salad and a cup of tea.
Miami Dolphins at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (-4): Chiefs
If the Dolphins were going to have their week, this would be it. Not only have they been particularly feisty in recent weeks, but they are getting Daniel Thomas back. And it physically pains me to pick the Chiefs, a team I have zero faith in. But pick them I must.
New York Jets at BUFFALO BILLS (-1.5): Jets
Haha, this is just painful. I love the Bills, love them at home where they’ve been perfect this season and covered their last three spreads. But clearly, I have been looking for love in all the wrong places. Hence, I find myself forced to do the Mark Sanchez. (Warning: the Surgeon General has determined that this link contains serious risk of both eye and ear cancer.)
Cleveland Browns at HOUSTON TEXANS (-11): Browns
Tough to get a read on this game, as Houston has had a nice record at home (3-1 against the spread, with their one loss coming to the Al Davis-inspired Raiders). But their home lines keep rising and rising. However, they covered 9.5 against the Jaguars last week without Andre Johnson, so I won’t discount his absence too heavily. But Cleveland on the other hand has been stricken by the Madden Curse and is forced to start former Texan fourth-string RB Chris “Silent G” Ogbonnaya. Chicken salad on rye says “Browns all the way!”
Seattle Seahawks at DALLAS COWBOYS (-11.5): Seahawks
The Cowboys’ chink in their armor might be their run defense, which has improved but could suffer without middle linebacker Sean Lee. But that assumes the other team can run the ball. Seattle can’t. They shouldn’t have a chance in hell of covering this game. But my opposite day prediction says that Tarvaris Jackson overcomes Demarcus Ware et al and has a huge day. Pfft.
San Francisco 49ers at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (-3.5): Redskins Upset!
Normally, the Niners would be my Lock. They’ve had no problem traveling east and mopping up inferior opponents, even those with strong running games as the Eagles have. And no team has yet to stop a revitalized Frank Gore in the last month of games. It’s my belief that the Skins are a dark horse in the Suck for Luck sweepstakes … if they can’t get to the #1 pick, they’ll get close enough to trade up. Winning games like this just takes them further out of the running. Hence win they must, says my opposite.
Atlanta Falcons (-7) at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS: Falcons
Another tough one to read. The Falcons have yet to cover as a road favorite, and a full touchdown is a large line. Even when you’re playing the execrable Colts. Indianapolis has looked awful in three consecutive road games, but could play well at home as they did against the Steelers. But as I lean that way, my shadow insists I place my faith in an underwhelming Matt Ryan and the dirty birds.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-8): Bucs
The Saints have been perfect at home so far, covering touchdown-plus lines against the Bears and Colts, and the Bucs have been looking shabby since Legarrette Blount went down. My gut says Saints rebound from last week with a monster performance. The imp of the perverse says the Bucs keep this one close.
Denver Broncos at OAKLAND RAIDERS (-7): Raiders
It’s ludicrous to assume bet anything on Carson Palmer right now. Thanks to the new NFLPA rules, his “extra week of practice” during the bye week was limited to two days’ worth of work. This is a man who is still mostly retired, and with Tebow on a short leash, the Broncos should be going with a run-heavy gameplan that the Raiders will find hard to stop. The Raiders win by a touchdown? Yeah right. (Oh yeah, right.)
Cincinnati Bengals at TENNESSEE TITANS (-3): Titans
The Bengals’ charmed life will come to an end sooner or later, but it shouldn’t be this week against a Titans team suddenly struggling to find their mojo in all phases of the game. With Chris Johnson doing 35 in the fast line like a Florida driver, and Nate Washington struggling to replace Kenny Britt, this offense has little chance of covering vs the Bengals’ top-5 defense. But the Titans must be my pick.
New York Giants at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-8.5): Patriots Lock!
You’re kidding, right? I know, Ahmad Bradshaw has a bum wheel and all, but were the oddsmakers not paying attention the last time they posted a huge line for the Pats over the Giants? It led to the greatest Super Bowl upset of all time. The Patriots’ defense is far worse now, and if anything, Eli Manning has better receivers than he did in that game. But I have to side with the Evil Empire in this one, says my opposite.
Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at SAN DIEGO CHARGERS: Chargers
Not only am I siding against myself here, but I’m also going counter to Lawrence’s smart-money pick of the week. At least I’m not having to pick San Diego to win this one, my brain might actually explode.
St Louis Rams at ARIZONA CARDINALS (-3): Cardinals
Easiest upset pick of the year right here. The Cards are forced to go back to John Skelton as their quarterback, and we all remember how well that went last year, right? Add a defense that is a complete disaster, the fact that the Cardinals have yet to cover a spread at home this year (pushing in week 1 against Cam Newton), and the fact that these Rams took down the Saints last week without Sam Bradford, and you’ve got the ingredients for a blowout win for St Louis. This one really, really hurts.
Baltimore Ravens at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (-3): Ravens
The Ravens seem an utterly different team now than the one that blew apart Pittsburgh in week 1. For that matter, so do the Steelers. How can I not expect a massive effort by the Steelers to avenge that loss? That would be my safe, “tuna on toast” pick for sure. Got to go Ravens, then.
Chicago Bears at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (-8): Bears
You can talk about Matt Forte all you want. For my money, I’d take LeSean McCoy over him every day of the week and twice on Monday. Now we get to see this debate hashed out, and I fully expect McCoy to prove himself the more dangerous player. But what I expect and what I’m forced to pick are, by definition, two very different things this week. So I’ll find myself rooting for Jay Cutler for the first time in my life.
Ugh. This opposite thing is even harder than it sounds. But no one said the path out of loserdom would be easy.
