Last week, the Patriots showed the rest of the league why they’re still a threat to take home the Lombardi Trophy. This weekend, they’ll be taking on the Baltimore Ravens in a battle of opposite philosophies. One team has a methodical offense with a smash mouth defense. The other has a quick hitting offense, a great quarterback, and a defense that gives away yards like the a philanthropist of real estate. The differences between the two teams make it one of the more enticing games of the season.
Enter Ricky Keeler, writer for Foxboroblog.com. He was kind enough to give us some answers to more pressing questions as he did last week, and he was able to help us shed some light on the AFC title game. Here’s what he had to say:
TGS: How do you expect the Patriots to slow down the Ravens’ offense, especially their ground attack?
Keeler: I expect Ray Rice to get around 80-90 yards rushing in this game, but the Patriots have been able to contain the big running play over their last three games of the season. I was very impressed with the way the defense stopped the rushing attack of the Denver Broncos. Yes, it was Tim Tebow’s rushing attack, but this defense still deserves some credit. They are 17th in the NFL in stopping the run, which is a pretty good number for a defense that most people focus on their 31st ranked pass defense.
This is considered by a lot of Patriots’ fans to be the revenge tour for Belichick righting all the wrongs of past years. I would look out for Ricky Williams as well who in the past has hurt the Patriots in his time with the Dolphins and could play a Willis McGahee role from 2009. I don’t think this will be 2009 all over again. Last year, Rice was held to 88 yards against New England because Belichick focused his gameplan on Rice. That being said, it would be nice if Cam Cameron, Baltimore’s offensive coordinator went to his road gameplan and let Flacco throw the ball 40 times too. The key will be the New England front 7 making the first tackle and not allowing Rice into the secondary.
TGS: Joe Flacco has been under a lot of pressure to deliver in the playoffs. Would you consider him elite or anywhere near being elite?
Keeler: First off, I dislike when we throw the elite word out there with all of these young quarterbacks. I had the same problem when Eli called himself elite back in August, but he has proven me wrong. As for Flacco, I like his game, but I don’t think he is anywhere near elite. As Ed Reed pointed out, he just get too flustered in the pocket and is not able to get the ball out quick enough to open targets down the field. Now, Flacco does have the weapons in the vertical passing game with Anquan Boldin and Torrey Smith. The question will be whether he can manage the game effectively and not throw those key interceptions that against the Patriots will cost you the game.
I buy more stock into the 2010 Flacco instead of the 2009 version. Back in that Wild Card game, Flacco only had to throw ten passes. But, last year, Flacco was 27/35 for 288 yards and two touchdowns. That is solid for a young quarterback on the road. However, the Ravens could not get the touchdowns in the red zone at big times in the game. They did that at Pittsburgh this year, but he just does not do it frequently enough. Baltimore can move the ball downfield on this defense. The question will be once they get into the red zone, do they get those Flacco touchdowns or do they settle for momentum killing Billy Cundiff field goals?
TGS: How will the Patriots attack the Ravens’ offense?
Keeler: This is going to be an unconventional answer for some Patriots’ fans, but I think they should try to run the football in this game. In last year’s meeting, they out ran the Baltimore Ravens and Baltimore was dominated in the trenches last week by the Houston offensive line. Don’t expect Stevan Ridley to get many carries after his fumble in garbage time against the Broncos. I think the speed of Danny Woodhead on third downs plus Green-Ellis on the goal line can be a factor.
Why would I run the ball? This allows Tom Brady to have extra time in the passing game. Baltimore only brings pressure when they blitz as we saw last week when they struggled to get sacks against T.J Yates. Make Baltimore have to respect the ground game! Brady is also going to look for his tight ends since Baltimore does not have much to stop Gronkowski and Hernandez down the field. Welker is back for this game as well, which he was not in 2009.
TGS: What’s your biggest concern from a Patriots perspective going into the game against the Ravens?
Keeler: My biggest concern is the Ravens’ defense. Even though Ed Reed is probably not 100%, he is still Ed Reed and has the capability to make a big play on defense to change field position around for Flacco. Terrell Suggs had a great year in 2011 and he does not like Tom Brady whatsoever. Even though the Patriots are 6-1 in their last 7 games against Baltimore, Brady always seem to struggle with Chuck Pagano’s defense because of the multiple schemes they present. Ray Rice is still a tough man to stop on the ground game. Finally, I am concerned with the lack of respect given to the Ravens. People are booking New England’s ticket to Indianapolis as Vegas lists the Patriots as a one touchdown favorite. John Harbaugh is one of my favorite coaches in the NFL because of the way the Ravens come out and play every week. Even though I think Flacco will be flustered, I would not be surprised to see the Ravens jump out into an early lead.
TGS: As you watch the NFC Championship, are you rooting for the Giants? Do you want a rematch of the 2007 Super Bowl?
Keeler: Being a New Yorker, I am not rooting for the Giants. While having a re-match of the 2007 Super Bowl would complete the Belichick and Brady revenge tour for sure, I would rather not constantly hear about 2007 for the last two weeks. Besides, I think the perfect culmination for Brady would be to play his childhood team (San Francisco) who passed him in the draft and pass his favorite quarterback (Joe Montana) for the most playoff wins ever and tie him with four Super Bowls. If the Patriots do lose, I will root for the Giants.
TGS: How do you see this game playing out?
Keeler: I think this game is going to be another close game into the 4th quarter. It will come down to which quarterback can produce in crunch time and that answer is Tom Brady. The Ravens might frustrate him early, but Brady and Belichick are always great at making in-game adjustments. My X-Factor for the Patriots that might just be the difference is Deion Branch. Everyone focuses on Gronk, Hernandez, and Welker when discussing the Patriots’ weapons. That is where Branch can slide right in. Last year, he had nine catches for 98 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore in his first game with New England since the Super Bowl years. He can make those crucial third down catches and extend some crucial drives in the second half. Baltimore hangs in there, but it will be New England hoisting another Lamar Hunt Trophy.
Patriots 27, Ravens 23
You can read more great content from Ricky Keeler at Foxboroblog.com, and you can also find him on Twitter @Rickinator555.
