A playoff system is not designed to match up the two best teams. It’s designed to match up the two most complete teams. That’s largely the case this year in the NFL. Next weekend, the New England Patriots will host the Baltimore Ravens, and the San Francisco 49ers will host the New York Giants. With the exception of the Patriots, the NFL’s system has given us three of the most complete teams in the league, but is that fair to the fans? Have we been robbed of an incredible New Orleans, Green Bay matchup?
Every year at about this time, there is a major playoff debate in football, but it generally centers around college football’s highly controversial BCS system. That system is designed to pit the two best teams against each other. That system would likely work relatively well in the NFL. The reason it fails at the collegiate level is that there are simply too many teams to adequately determine the two best teams with only twelve games. Our latest example of this debatable failure came this season when Oklahoma State had as good as or a better résumé than Alabama, yet Alabama was sent to the BCS title game while Oklahoma State was sent to the Fiesta Bowl.
The reason such a system would work in the NFL is due to the fact that the NFL plays more games with about a fourth as many teams in play. Yes, I believe it would work at the pro level, but is that good for the sport? No.
The NFL is set apart from nearly every other major sport, except college basketball, by a single-elimination playoff system. In virtually every major pro sport, the playoffs are organized into series of games. That doesn’t work in the NFL because teams generally play once every seven days. A playoff system that utilizes series is designed to narrow the competition downs to the two best teams. In that way, a series system nearly eliminates the possibility of flukes, something the NFL is well known for.
So, getting back to our original question, does the NFL’s system rob us of the matchups we want to see most? Again, no it doesn’t.
The NFL didn’t become the most popular sport in the nation by producing exactly what we expect. No one expected the Saints to be knocked out of the playoffs a season ago by the Seattle Seahawks, and that’s why that game was so entertaining to the masses. For some time, we didn’t think the upset could happen, but as it unfolded, it became a very real possibility. Basically, it was a taste of March Madness in January.
Fast forward to today. I’m stunned by the teams that have made it to the NFC title game. Sure, the upstart 49ers had a great year, but I didn’t dream they could be Drew Brees and the Saints with Alex Smith at the helm. Guess what. It happened. Then we were treated to a beat-down of the Packers at Lambeau Field. Again, it was a game I thought would be close, but I never expected a blowout. So here we are.
The fact of the matter is that the Ravens, Giants, or the 49ers are not the best team in the league. Those three teams are in the upper tier, but the Packers, Saints, and the Patriots are all better. The Patriots have to be the favorite to win it all at this point, but they have to put together two complete games, because if you don’t do so in the playoffs, you’re gone. Just ask the Saints or the Packers.
Flukes are part of the NFL. That’s what has made the sport so popular, and I wouldn’t change a thing. Sometimes it’s nice to get a perfect Super Bowl between the two best teams, but the journey to the Super Bowl is seldom as exciting in those instances. Unpredictability is the single greatest thing about pro football. After all, would you really be watching if you knew the winners before the game was played?
