It is tough to get a read on the hysteria surrounding Matt Flynn as we near the annual free agency bonanza. The former 7th round pick is all of a sudden the darling of the dance, with teams apparently lining up to give him suitcases full of money. How did a guy go from being the twelfth pivot drafted in his class, to potentially being signed to a deal that will pay him upwards of $10 million a year?
Well it seems that all you have to do is put together two good games in a four-year career, with the league’s best offensive weapons at your disposal. Flynn was called upon in the waning moments of the past two seasons to do some mop up duty while Aaron Rodgers relaxed on the sideline. In the day and age of “what have you done for me lately,” this tiny sample size has thrust him to the forefront of free agent quarterbacks.
With only two buzz-worthy quarterbacks available in the draft, it’s almost certain that some team will pony up draft picks and dollars for the Packers backup, hoping to land the next Matt Hasselbeck. But will Flynn live up to his suddenly deafening hype?
In Week 17 against the Pats last year, Flynn went 24 for 37 for 251 yards, three scores and a pick. This year against a porous Lions defense, Flynn was the star of the week as he went 31 for 44, racked up a ridiculous 480 yards and six scores. Ryan Grant scampering for an 80 yard score and Jordy Nelson catching scores of 36 and 58 yards surely helped, but they were impressive numbers nonetheless.
Despite the fact that both of the games that he played in were largely meaningless, the lack of free agent quarterbacks along with Matt Barkley and Landry Jones deciding to complete their college careers have made Flynn one of the hottest, but littlest-known, commodities on the market this year.
The teams in the hunt for a pivot are numerous. The Redskins, the Dolphins, the Browns and the Seahawks could all use serious upgrades under center. With Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III likely to be off the board by the time any of them pick, barring a trade, it makes Flynn that much more appealing.
But lets take a step back for a second and have a look at this guy that everyone is busy fawning over.
Flynn stands 6-foot-2 and tips in at 225 pounds, so he has average to below average height. But as Brees has shown us, it is not always about height when working in the pocket. But the thing is, Flynn has an average arm, not a cannon like that guy down in the Bayou.
His draft profile did not offer glowing praise of his tools. He needed to work on his mechanics and pass placement, and a propensity to stare down primary targets led to a 56% completion percentage in his senior year at LSU, and 11 picks to just 21 touchdowns. He throws a nice deep ball, but he often puts it up for grabs with high arcing tosses.
Whichever team decides to go after him needs to realize that they do not have the weapons that the Packers do. Sure he looked good in the final week of the season, but having Finley, Driver, Jennings and Jordy Nelson split out on either side of you sure makes life easy.
The list of pivots that were drafted before him includes the likes of John David Booty, Erik Ainge and Andre Woodson. Not exactly illustrious company to be drafted ahead of you. It is not as if he suffered from a lack of exposure, as he led LSU to a BCS National Championship, and played in the television happy SEC. He also had some weapons to work with, as Early Doucet, Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd were hauling in passes for him at Tiger Stadium.
So it seems as if Flynn has benefited from having great tools to work with at every level, and had the chance for the ultimate showcase in a good ol’ fashioned Week 17 shootout against the Lions this year. He has been sitting behind Aaron Rodgers for the past four years, and has thrown for a grand total of 1015 yards, with almost half of those coming in one game this year.
But teams are hungry, and the never-ending front office regime changes make it almost necessary that a new quarterback is part of every struggling team. Flynn is going to benefit from the treatment that Kevin Kolb got last year, when the Cardinals decided it was wise to him $21 million guaranteed to a guy who threw as many scores as picks. Or the case of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who got himself $24 million guaranteed in return for starting the season 5-2.
The Redskins cannot continue to go forward with John Beck and Rex Grossman under center. Tarvaris Jackson is not a long-term solution in Seattle. Colt McCoy does not have what it takes to be a big time quarterback. Matt Moore was a nice stopgap, but with upheaval underway in Miami, a new quarterback is likely in order.
Everyone knows that the ‘Skins love to sign fat checks, and at some point Daniel Snyder is going to get himself a pivot. The Browns may be in line to trade up for RGIII, so scratch them for now. The Dolphins are likely looking to make a splash, so look out for them. Pete Carroll says Tarvaris Jackson is his guy, but that is likely a dirty lie so they could be in the mix as well.
With the league going towards the spread more and more, and with passing records falling by the minute, every team that does not have a gunslinger is looking around the league, or the college ranks, to get one. Last year we saw Ponder, Locker and Gabbert go higher than they should have because teams panicked and felt the need to spend high first round picks on them.
Matt Flynn is indeed quite the curious case, but the one thing that is clear is that he is about to get paid. Adam Schefter reports that the Packers are likely to franchise Jermichael Finley, rather than Flynn. This opens the door for Flynn to test the open market and see just how ridiculous the offers get. The Kolb/Fitzpatrick ballpark is likely, and it will be interesting if this investment goes as badly as those two.
Curious case indeed.
