Of all the wildcard games to come this weekend, none may have a more lopsided outward appearance than the Broncos, Steelers matchup. That being the case, we can’t simply write off the improbable playoff run the Broncos were able to orchestrate. Having lost their final three games of the season, the Broncos will be challenged with the task of winning at home against the NFL’s top ranked defense.
To answer some tough questions about the Denver Broncos, I’m pleased to introduce Woody Paige from the Denver Post and ESPN’s Around the Horn.
TGS: The Broncos are an extreme case of a “run the ball, stop the run” team. Is that still a valid formula for making a deep playoff run?
Paige: I’m not certain that formula has been true in the playoffs for some time. It seems that pass first, stop the pass has been more evident with the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Peyton and Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees winning the Super Bowls lately. It’s been a while since running and stopping the run – maybe the Baltimore Ravens – has been a successful formula going late in the playoffs. It’s obvious, at least to me, you have to pass and stop the pass.
TGS: What do the Broncos have to do to keep it close with the Pittsburgh Steelers?
Paige: Control the time of possession, convert third downs, run successful against the Steelers (who haven’t been that great against the run much of the season), keep Ben Roethlisberger from making gigantic scoring plays, not allowing the Steelers to get ahead by more than 10 points, Tim Tebow, of course, having a good day both running (75 yards) and passing (200), not making turnovers, causing a turnover or two.
The Steelers, I think, have scored 23 points since Roethlisberger was hurt, and only 13 in Cleveland, which isn’t a good team. If the Broncos can score, say, 17 points and hold the Steelers to a touchdown or two, and a couple of field goals, the game will be close in the fourth quarter, and the Broncos, as they have shown, have a chance once they get into a hurry-up mode, and Tebow doesn’t have to overthink every throw. He has proven in college (against Oklahoma in the BCS championship) and with the Broncos, he’s at his best in the fourth quarter when his natural ability takes over his physical inability.
TGS: Tim Tebow has been under a microscope all season long. Is there anything that he’s done that suggests he can be the long term starter in Denver?
Paige: Aaron Rodgers came into the league with a bad passing technique, one of the reasons he dropped from the top of the draft to late in the first round. He reworked his passing motion, worked very hard and made himself into a great quarterback. With a full off-season, help from John Elway and the experience of starting 12 games this season, he will improve. With his mobility and his mindset and his leadership qualities, he has a good chance to be a very good quarterback. It’s been done before by Rodgers, Brees and Eli Manning.
TGS: Denver fans clearly wanted Tebow as the starter as soon as Kyle Orton began to struggle. What’s the public sentiment in Denver now that it seems Tebow isn’t a great passer?
Paige: It’s about 70-30 for Tebow.
TGS: Most national analysts don’t give the Broncos much of a chance to beat Pittsburgh. How do you think the game unfolds?
Paige: I see the Broncos playing well in the first quarter. Tebow usually does well in the 15 scripted plays. If the Broncos don’t make turnovers in the first half, and can limit Roethlisberger, who re-injured his ankle last Sunday, the game will be close at halftime. The Steelers have some serious injury problems, as everyone knows with Mendenhall and others out and two of their best defensive players struggling with injuries (James Harrison for one), and Ryan Clark unable to play (which is a damn shame).
I see a close game going into the fourth quarter, and Roethlisberger having three or four great pass plays against a weakened defense (I don’t think Brian Dawkins plays in any shape or form), and the Broncos make a comeback to make it close, say 20-17, and the Steelers barely hanging on.
The Steelers are favored by nine. I think that’s a setup based on the New England game. The Broncos turned the ball over three times in the second quarter, and that game got away. This game won’t get away early. The Steelers’ playoff experience, Roethlisberger and Troy P have a few great plays, and barely win.
Thanks again to Woody Paige. You can catch him at the Denver Post, on ESPN’s “Around the Horn,” and on Twitter @WoodyPaige.
