It’s time to have a talk. Or rather, stop a discussion before it truly begins? I’m not sure which yet, so let’s find out together.
Either way we need to take a serious look at Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray and some guy named Eric Dickerson. It’s time for the single-season rushing record chat.
Too soon? Nope. When an NFL team is past the quarter mark of its schedule—as the Cowboys are with five games played—it’s not too early in the NFL calendar anymore to talk about a single-season record. And when ads for various sexy Halloween costumes are bouncing across your computer screen (including sexy carrot!) it’s definitely not too early anymore.
And it’s really, really not too early when a running back has 670 rushing yards after five games, an incredible average of 134.0 yards per week. That’s the pace Murray has set so far, and he’s doing it at five yards per carry.
An even more important pace he’s setting is the one that has him breaking Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. Even reaching the 2,000 yard mark in a season is significant for a running back, as that mountain has been climbed by only seven backs in league history. But as of right now Murray is chugging toward the ultimate prize.
In 1984 Dickerson rushed for 2,105 yards, a record that still stands today. Murray’s 16-game pace right now? 2,144 yards.
Inherently, however, there’s a problem with paces: regression. Swift, crushing regression.
For some perspective on how difficult it is to maintain such a blistering pace over an entire season look to Adrian Peterson’s 2012 year when he came only nine yards shy of breaking Dickerson’s record.
He finished with 2,097 rushing yards that season, and his surge came from Week 7 onwards. That’s when he averaged a ridiculous 159.8 rushing yards per game. Really sit and absorb that number for a second, one reached when Percy Harvin was injured, and Christian Ponder was the Minnesota Vikings quarterback.
Basically, the Vikings had one source of offense and everyone in every stadium knew it. Yet Peterson still ran for over 2,000 yards.
But he also still fell short of taking Dickerson’s glory, even with that comical pace, and even with four games when he ran for over 180 yards. Although a slow start (at least by comparison) when he averaged 83.1 yards per game over the first six weeks didn’t help, ultimately Peterson can look back on one game to find the cause of his failure to break Dickerson’s record. It came in Week 16 in the middle of that sizzling stretch when he managed a far more human 86 yards.
That’s all it could take for Murray. One afternoon of being good instead of a superhero. The margin for error is that razor thin still even right now after his blistering start. Currently there are 39 yards separating Murray’s 2014 pace and Dickerson’s record, which is extremely little over the course of the next 11 games.
Then there’s an external factor out of Murray’s control. He’s also currently on pace to tie another single-season record: Larry Johnson’s 416 carries. That’s not ideal for a running back who still hasn’t played a full 16-game season yet in his career, which is why Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett has said Murray’s workload will be scaled back at least slightly.
Returning to the original question: can Murray break Dickerson’s single-season rushing record? Sure, but he has to stay healthy, keep receiving a historically high volume of carries, and not stumble once.
Good luck with that.
