The Cleveland Browns have a problem. It’s a nice problem, but a problem nonetheless, and one that may require some creative front office tap dancing.
Brian Hoyer might actually be good. Or at least the version of “good” the Browns would prefer in a run-heavy offense.
We saw a hint of this last season, which is why there were so many rumblings Johnny Manizel would sit for his entire rookie year after the Browns selected him with a first-round pick. At the time many chuckled at that thought (full disclosure: “many” includes me). It felt like Hoyer was the classic case of both intrigue and wishful hoping gone completely wrong.
Rewind to 2013 and you’ll recall an incredibly small sample size because of Hoyer’s torn ACL. Prior to that he had a great start against the Bengals (passer rating of 103.9), and a mediocre at best start against the Vikings (three interceptions, completion percentage of 55.6), and their defense which would end the season ranked 31st while defending the pass. But because both of those games ended in wins he was suddenly a savior for a fanbase that needed one so desperately.
Now back to current times when the sample size has grown. What do we see?
Well, winning is still happening. How much you want to put that solely on Hoyer depends in your belief in “wins” as a meaningful statistic in our evaluation of a quarterback’s skill (it’s not meaningful at all). The Browns are 3-2, which includes two wins against the division rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Those three wins are two more than most thought they would have heading into Week 7.
Here’s what does matter for Hoyer, and why he’ll continue to start for the rest of this season: he’s safe. In a Browns power-running offense orchestrated by Kyle Shanahan, safe at quarterback means success. And Manziel is on the complete opposite of the safe versus “what the hell is he thinking?” spectrum.
That doesn’t mean Manziel won’t be a quality NFL quarterback eventually, or that he’s a draft bust. Let’s ease up before jumping to that conclusion. It means that after five games the Browns have seen Hoyer do exactly what they expected, and what they feared Manziel couldn’t do effectively.
What is that? A lot of caretaking, mixed with some playmaking.
Hoyer has attempted only 149 passes, the second fewest in the league among quarterbacks who have started every game. That shows how much the Browns are minimizing him and their passing game as a whole when possible while leaning on the run. The result has been a rushing attack that’s regularly lit up opponents, even with Ben Tate missing three games.
Cleveland is leading the league with eight rushing touchdowns. The last time they scored that much over the first five games of a season was 1971 (seriously). They’re also averaging 146.4 yards yards per game on the ground (third).
But although the heavy offensive lifting is being done by Tate, Hoyer has still shown repeatedly he can connect deep when needed. He’s efficiency defined, which is evident when we look at his number of dropbacks alongside his volume of passing yards through the air.
Hoyer has dropped back to pass only 158 times according to Pro Football Focus, which slots him 27th among all quarterbacks who have taken at least 50 percent of their team’s offensive snaps this season. Yet of his 1,224 passing yards, 856 of them have come through the air. That percentage of air yards (69.4) is the second highest in the league.
To review then: a quarterback who’s not asked to pass often is throwing far and deep during his sporadic chances, and usually connecting. That was taken to the extreme in Week 6 when Hoyer finished with a mere eight completions in a win over Pittsburgh. But four of them went for gains of 30 yards or more, including connections with tight end Jordan Cameron for 42 and 51 yards.
It’s early, and overall the schedule has been pretty soft so far for the Browns. Incredibly four of their five games have been decided by a field goal or less, which hints strongly at some horseshoe magic and possible forthcoming regression.
But if this early success can be sustained and safe sprinkled with managed risk continues to be a winning offensive formula, then Hoyer will keep starting, and Manziel will keep watching.
And eventually if that happens the Browns will be forced to have a conversation which isn’t being entertained just yet. A conversation that could end in an extension for Hoyer and uncertainty for Manziel.
