Every year around the halfway point of the season we start to think about playoff scenarios. Inevitably the possibilities that emerge require a wild imagination and advanced arithmetic.
Though Week 10 has now officially begun it feels like there are only about four teams we can look at and definitely say they won’t be playing football in January. Consider the AFC right now, where the Cleveland Browns would occupy the first wild card slot if the playoffs started today, but then behind them are three teams with a 5-3 record (nearly four if we toss in the Cincinnati Bengals and their 5-3-1 record, with a tie always causing December migraines).
Combined the two conferences have seven teams that are at worst within one game of a wild card spot, and many still have a shot to jump up further and challenge for a division title.
It’s early November and a lot of moving parts still need to settle. So let’s sift through the mid-season wreckage to identify three legitimate playoff contenders, and three pretenders that will fade into the January abyss.
Contenders
Cleveland Browns (6-3): The Cincinnati Bengals are getting more attention for being horrible Thursday night than the Browns are for doing their bulldozing (see below?). They finished the game with 170 total rushing yards, and the depth of the Browns’ backfield could separate them from most run-powered offenses. Terrance West and Ben Tate are each over 340 rushing yards this season (West is well over at 396), and Isaiah Crowell isn’t far behind at 297.
Green Bay Packers (5-3): Aaron Rodgers threw at least three touchdown passes in four straight games and went six weeks without throwing an interception. Rodgers steadily putting footballs into Jordy Nelson’s hands (three 50-plus yard catches) will always keep the Packers in contention for, well, pretty much everything. But the Packers’ run defense won’t (a league worst 153.5 rushing yards allowed per game).
Philadelphia Eagles (6-2): The Eagles will chuck ‘nuks with the Dallas Cowboys for the NFC East title, and are currently the division leaders. Any concerns over the Eagles flat-lining because of Nick Foles’ injury should die this week (or now?). Mark Sanchez will be just fine in Chip Kelly’s offense, a highly-structured system which will limit his poor decisions. Sanchez has plenty of arm strength, and now far more offensive support than he ever received with the Jets.
Pretenders
San Francisco 49ers (4-4): The 49ers are currently one game back of the second wild card spot in the NFC. They have more than enough offensive firepower to bridge that gap, and remarkably they have the second best defense in the league despite multiple injuries to key players (NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis chief among them) and a suspension (Aldon Smith). But all of that will be derailed if they don’t find a way to keep Colin Kaepernick upright. He’s been sacked 14 times over just the past two weeks, and overall the 27 sacks he’s taken are a league worst.
Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1): Even after Thursday night’s debacle the Bengals are still only just behind the AFC North leading Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3) and only a tie has them trailing that AFC wild card logjam. But Andy Dalton will destroy both this season, and this team for the foreseeable future. He completed only 30.3 percent of his passes Thursday, a franchise low since 2000. Both that percentage and his passing yards (only 86 yards) were lows among all quarterbacks in 2014. It gets worse: he’s thrown two touchdown passes over his last four games, a stretch when he’s been below 3.5 yards per attempt twice.
New Orleans Saints (4-4): The Saints currently lead the NFC South, and unfortunately a team has to win that division. The NFC South is the Rodney Dangerfield of Rodney Dangerfield references: gets no respect and deserves none. Like Rodgers and Nelson, Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham alone could be enough to lift the Saints above the rest of the division’s toxic waste. However, a secondary that lost Jairus Byrd (pronounce Jaaaiiruss Biuuurd) and is now giving up 7.9 yards per pass attempt and 268.4 per game could be too much to overcome.
