Each offseason the amount of teams that need quarterbacks always outnumbers the amount of quarterbacks available through either the draft, or the death pit that is free agency at the position.
So a risk needs to be taken on an established arm who’s fallen out of favor. In some instances the quarterback in question has legitimately regressed, and in others he’s become a poor fit for his current head coach or offensive coordinator.
That’s where the risk lies with any trade for a player who will instantly become the centerpiece of your offense. It’s balanced by acquiring a known product, and a quarterback who’s had past success at the highest level.
Three quarterbacks who could be on the trade block this offseason fit that description. Let’s explore the likelihood of a scenery change for Colin Kaepernick, Jay Cutler, and Robert Griffin III.
Colin Kaepernick
Colin Kaepernick has regressed as a passer this season, often spraying throws and unnecessarily forcing balls into tight windows while off balance. But that’s only half of the Kaepernick mystique, because overall as a quarterback he’s still confusing.
Much of Kaepernick’s regression is his own responsibility. But part of it also lies with a San Francisco 49ers offense misusing a primary asset.
Kaepernick isn’t a pocket passer, and he’ll likely never fit comfortably into that role. He doesn’t scan the field well and go through his progressions, both concerning flaws. But he’s generally much more at ease while moving, which is when he can make decisions on the run and rely on instincts.
Which means he needs to be inserted into an offense that incorporates more read option and play action. In 2013 the 49ers ran play action on 28.1 percent of Kaepernick’s snaps, according to Pro Football Focus. That was the seventh highest percentage in the league, and it’s since fallen to 20.1 percent (23rd).
The likelihood of San Francisco moving on from Kaepernick right now is lower simply because without an immediate and viable replacement the 49ers would then join the long list of quarterback-needy teams. But it’s still a possibility if a new coaching staff wants to move in a different direction after Jim Harbaugh departs.
Kaepernick’s current contract guarantees him only over $13 million, and it’s essentially a year-to-year deal. The obstacle for a trade isn’t financial, and is instead whether or not a new team (and coaching staff) can utilize Kaepernick’s uniquely athletic gifts while minimizing his flaws.
Robert Griffin III
Most of Kaepernick’s problems are shared by Robert Griffin III, with the crippling difference being that at least Kaepernick still has an internal clock telling him when to release the damn ball or bail from the pocket.
Griffin seems to lack any pocket awareness whatsoever, and simply doesn’t see wide open receivers. On one occasion, that meant five wide open receivers…
(pic via Deadspin)
As a result of that poor vision he holds the ball far too long, taking unnecessary hits and committing far too many turnovers. He’s appeared in only seven games this season and has still been sacked 28 times, most recently getting turfed seven times by the Giants in Week 15.
The moment head coach Jay Gruden benched a healthy Griffin in favor of Colt McCoy, the end become near. Unlike Kyle Shanahan, the Redskins’ former offensive coordinator, Gruden runs a pro-style offense. Timing and rhythm is critical for success in his system, and it doesn’t cater well to a quarterback who wants to tuck and run after his first read fails.
It was always going to be either Gruden leaving after only a single year in Washington, or the plug being pulled on the Griffin experiment. When Gruden was reportedly told he’s staying the latter became far more likely.
Despite his flaws and injury history Griffin will still be appealing on the trade market because of his age. He’s still young at only 24, and all it will take for the Redskins to net a high pick (maybe a third rounder?) for his services is one general manager who thinks that with the right direction, better days are still ahead for the Heisman winner.
Jay Cutler
Here we see another inevitable end for everyone involved. But the dollars will be difficult.
When Chicago bears head coach Marc Trestman benched Cutler this week it was a mercy killing of sorts. Cutler still possesses a bazooka arm, but his potential with that gift is capped by his poor decisions. He’s thrown a league leading 18 interceptions this season, and has seven multiple-interception games.
His benching as a result communicated that if a willing partner is found to absorb a bloated contract, Cutler won’t be in Chicago next year. The burning dumpster that is this 2014 Chicago Bears season will take Trestman down too, as he’ll surely be a Black Monday victim.
When the head coach who doubles as a quarterback guru/whisperer gets the axe, his failed student will follow too as a complete rebuild begins.
But about Cutler’s contract: As we learn repeatedly each March during free agency, only guaranteed money matters. Cutler is guaranteed $15.5 million in 2015, and $25.5 million over the next two years. That is indeed a small cash mountain, though it’s about on par with typical quarterback contracts in the modern passing era.
Cutting Cutler isn’t an option because it would result in a whopping $38 million in dead money, according to spotrac. But can the Bears find a trade partner who’s willing spend that $25.5 million and see if they can resurrect his career? That will be challenging, though not impossible.
