The NFL has named an MVP 57 times, each year since 1957. During those years it’s been a quarterback 37 times, and a running back 18 times. A defensive player was determined to be the most valuable in the league and to his team during a season twice, the most recent coming 28 years ago (Lawrence Taylor).
That streak could end this year. It probably should end this year.
Through a quarter of the 2014 season J.J. Watt’s dominance has already reached the point that if he plays merely good—not even great, just good—the rest of the way, he’ll receive very serious, very legitimate MVP consideration.
Put another way: I’ll respectfully disagree with our fearless leader around here, and in an alternate galaxy where a quarter-season MVP trophy is a real thing, it’s on Watt’s mantle.
If the season ended today and Watt isn’t the MVP, we should just abolish the award now, and hand out only offensive and defensive player of the year honors (the latter of which he’s already secured anyway).
In Week 4 Watt took his first career interception back 80 yards. He became the first player with 35 or more sacks, a receiving touchdown, and a pick returned for a touchdown, all over his first four seasons. He also did this, which is some pretty fine comedy…
Watt makes this dude look so ridiculous, looks like a bad sports scene in a cheesy movie.. https://t.co/CuBea4BeDl #Texans (via @PatDStat)
— Sean Pendergast (@SeanCablinasian) October 1, 2014
What’s remarkable, though, is how much he’s showing us that using sacks and only sacks to measure the success of a pass rusher can be awfully narrow-minded thinking.
Watt has two sacks over four games, which would be pretty alright for normal mortals, but it feels subpar for him. Pay little attention to that, because here’s what matters.
During that Week 4 game against the Bills he hit quarterback EJ Manuel nine times (nine!). Watt was disrupting Manuel’s timing, rhythm, and ability to scan the field on nearly 20 percent of his dropbacks.
Quarterback hits are an unofficial stat, meaning that although they’re a fine metric to gauge how often a pass rusher is making life horrible for the guy throwing the ball, you won’t find any mention of them in a boxscore. But officially, head coaches and coordinators are overjoyed if their entire defense gets nine in a game.
Once more, because this deserves it: Watt had nine on his own. He has 17 over only four games with 13 quarterback hurries.
He’s been doing his usual swatting too, with three passes defensed so far this season. That brings him to 30 on his career, which just shouldn’t happen for any defensive end. Of the top 10 all-time sack leaders, seven didn’t record a single pass defensed, and only two had more than 20 throughout their entire careers.
If we combine Watt’s sacks, passes defensed, quarterback hits, and quarterback hurries after four games we get this number: 35, the amount of times he’s either changed the outcome of a play, or made it exceedingly difficult for the offense to complete the play using its intended design.
That’s disruption and chaos, the heartbeat of any pass rush. And it’s all coming from one man.
He’s also recorded nine defensive stops, according to Pro Football Focus, and they are quite literally defined as an offensive failure (the metric gives deeper meaning to tackles using the down, and distance earned).
Need more single-game dominance? The Texans are 3-1, and Ryan Fitzpatrick is their quarterback. During the first of those three wins Watt had two tackles for a loss, and he also blocked an extra point, recovered a fumble, and knocked a pass down.
He changed that game (a win over Washington) just like he did this past Sunday. When he took that interception back for six points the Bills were on Houston’s 12 yard-line leading 10-7. At the very least they were about to add more points, and likely seven of them. Instead a touchdown went the other way, and Houston didn’t give up the resulting lead.
He changes games regularly. That’s what the league’s most valuable player does.
