It’s time for meaningless NFL predictions! I’ll put mine out in three sections: the AFC, the NFC and awards/playoffs. Here is getting things started with the AFC.
AFC East
- New England Patriots
- Miami Dolphins
- New York Jets
- Buffalo Bills
Whether the Pats were going to win this division wasn’t a question when they were only going to have Tom Brady for 12 games and now he’s there for all 16. If you pick anyone besides New England to win the AFC East while Bill Belichick and Brady are here you’re probably trying too hard. There’s some questions about the secondary, but Belichick works around weaknesses and accentuates strengths. The Pats are going to be fine.
For the first time since 2010 I’m betting they do get two playoff teams though. I have concerns about the Dolphins’ long-term plan, but I like their team for this season. They’re well-rounded on both sides of the ball and Ryan Tannehill was better in the first season of Bill Lazor’s offense than most realized including myself. Lamar Miller is a solid running back, the offensive line should be reasonably decent and they have pass catchers in Jarvis Landry, Jordan Cameron and Kenny Stills. They need Brent Grimes to keep playing like a number-one corner despite being 32, but a a devastating pass rush has the potential to erase any concerns about the secondary. That’s what having Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake does for you.
The Bills and Jets are pretty much interchangeable and can fall anywhere besides six to nine wins. Both teams have a surprisingly decent level of competence at running back and wide receiver, but questions with the offensive line and quarterback position is too much to over come. They will both be strong defensively.
AFC North
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Cleveland Browns
The Steelers will have one of the best offenses in the league despite Le’Veon Bell missing two games and Martavis Bryant out for four. That’s what happens when you have Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown, although being without center Maurkice Pouncey for a good chunk of the season is concerning. The question is can Pittsburgh go from playoff team to true Super Bowl contender. The Steelers ranked 27th by Football Outsiders DVOA metric last season. For them to make a jump in this area the linebacking core needs to live up to the hype — Ryan Shazier only played nine games in his rookie season and pairing him with Lawrence Timmons full time is a big boost. One of rookie Bud Dupree or third-year outside backer Jarvis Jones has to be able to generate pressure of the edge. Brandon Boykin can help their pass defense along with not having Ike Taylor anymore even though there’s not much at corner besides Boykin.
The Ravens have been a model of consistency with John Harbaugh as head coach. They’ve made the playoffs in seven of nine seasons and never finished under .500. It’s going to be more of the same this season, but I think they fall just short of a playoff berth. Quarterback Joe Flacco doesn’t have much to throw to outside of wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. and running back Justin Forsett. Baltimore is asking a lot out of rookie receiver Breshad Perriman (might not even be ready for Week One) and rookie tight end Maxx Williams.
I’m picking Cincinnati’s stretch of four straight playoff appearances to come to an end. I still think the Bengals are pretty good, but the AFC is better than it was last year. With the increase in talent I find it hard to roll with the team featuring Andy Dalton at QB and Marvin Lewis as the head coach. Not a fan of either.
Speaking of bad quarterback play, the Browns are starting Josh McCown! #FreeManziel #FreeManziel #FreeManziel This team desperately needs Josh Gordon’s talent on the outside and that won’t be happening with him suspended for the entire season. The offensive line should be excellent and running back Isaiah Crowell has the talent to break out if given the chance. In another division, like the AFC South, I’d like them a little bit more, but not with the three teams above them. Their defense was solid last season and should be again. Not an awful team, just mediocre.
AFC South
- Indianapolis Colts
- Houston Texans
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Tennessee Titans
Welcome to the worst division in football, again.
I made the mistake last year of not picking the Colts to win this division and I won’t be doing the same thing again. Despite making the AFC Championship Game last season I still don’t think they’re all that good, but they have Andrew Luck. Luck covers up for a ton of their flaws on both sides of the ball. The run game should be more consistent this season without them forcing the ball to Trent Richardson so that’s an improvement! I don’t see the defense being much better. They get to the playoffs, but get stomped again by a team that’s more physical than them.
It’s too bad the Texans thought it was a good idea to go into the season with Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallet as their quarterbacks. If they had even an average QB I would have picked them to win the AFC South. I’m hoping we get to see a healthy Jadaveon Clowney line up with J.J. Watt this year — football fans deserve this entertainment. The schedule sets up nicely for them early when they don’t have Arian Foster. The first month is hosting the Chiefs, at the Panthers, home against the Bucs and at the Falcons. 2-2 isn’t out of the question.
Can one of the Titans or Jaguars be decent this season? Probably not, but if I had to pick one I’d go with the Jags. I don’t think they’re there yet though. Both of these teams are praying they have their QB of the future with Jacksonville hoping for progression from Blake Bortles in year two and Tennessee a positive rookie season out of Marcus Mariota.
AFC West
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Denver Broncos
- San Diego Chargers
- Oakland Raiders
This division is the opposite of the AFC South — I actually strongly believe in it. I’m picking it as the best group in the AFC this season.
My only division winner that’s different from the year before is the Chiefs over the Broncos. Andy Reid is one of the few coaches I think can elevate a QB of Alex Smith’s level and produce a solid offense. With the Chiefs having talent like Jamaal Charles, Jeremy Maclin, Travis Kelce and Knile Davis I think there’s enough here for Smith to prosper with Reid’s help. On defense Kansas City gets safety Eric Berry back, Justin Houston and Dontari Poe are beasts and it’s year two for promising cornerback Phillip Gaines. I buy the Chiefs can improve on their 20th ranked DVOA from last season.
I still have the Broncos in the playoffs just not winning the division. I can see it taking their offense a little time to get clicking as head coach Gary Kubiak and Peyton Manning get comfortable with each other. The defense should once again be excellent and somehow even better with Wade Phillips running the show on that side of the ball.
There’s a path for the Chargers to make the playoffs and it’s not all that hard to see. Full season of health for Philip Rivers, improved running game, bounce back season from Keenan Allen, breakout year from Melvin Ingram and the smallish cornerback duo of Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett thrives in their second season together. None of these is all that unrealistic, but I see them falling slightly short.
Competency is on the way for the Raiders. When was the last time Oakland had the potential for two high level talents like wide receiver Amari Cooper and linebacker Khalil Mack? A long, long, long, long time — that’s the answer. That’s an excellent starting place for this franchise and now they have to continue to add, develop more young talent to go with it. Maybe, sometime in the near future, them having available salary cap space won’t be such a bad thing.
AFC Playoffs
#1 Seed: New England Patriots
#2 Seed: Indianapolis Colts
#3 Seed: Pittsburgh Steelers
#4 Seed: Kansas City Chiefs
#5 Seed: Denver Broncos
#6 Seed: Miami Dolphins
