With the New York Jets heading into a showdown with the New England Patriots on Sunday afternoon it’s a good time to ponder how good is the stepchild of the AFC East?
Football Outsiders ranks the Green and White fifth by their DVOA system and put New York with an 80% chance at making the playoffs. The Jets have the second ranked defense and 10th best offense, one of only five teams along with the Arizona Cardinals, New England Patriots, Green Bay Packers and Buffalo Bills to be top 10 in both.
Chris Ivory is fourth in the NFL in total rushing yards despite missing a game and the Jets already having a bye. Ivory is the only player averaging over five yards per rush compiling at least 80 carries.
The Jets offensive line isn’t only creating running lanes for their running backs, but doing an excellent job giving quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick time to throw. Some of this is offensive coordinator Chain Gailey scheming to get the ball out of his QB’s hands quickly and part the group of five playing together well — New York is allowing an NFL-low sack percentage of 1.2.
To compliment the running game the Jets have been getting solid play on the outside from Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, who also lines up frequently in the slot. Both have consistently made big plays, while also being prone to mistakes. The good overshadows the bad here, though. Marshall has 37 catches for 511 yards and four touchdowns — Decker has hit pay dirt the same amount. Both are averaging a little over 13 yards per catch.
The Jets defense only has eight sacks, tied for second lowest in the league, but generates pressure consistently. Of course some luck is involved, but New York’s defensive scheme created by head coach Todd Bowles and defensive coordinator Kacy Rodgers have helped generate 15 turnovers, behind only the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles.
The defense has made life easier for the offense giving the Jets the second-best average starting field position. New York, to this point, has been elite defending the run and the pass.
The defensive line should keep getting better with Sheldon Richardson continuing to improve after returning from his four-game suspension. Antonio Cromartie has settled in after struggles in training camp and early in the season across from Darrelle Revis. Buster Skrine has been a revelation in the slot, blitzing off the edge and in coverage, along with Calvin Pryor showing strides after a poor rookie season in year two.
One weakness to watch with the Jets is middle linebackers David Harris and Demario Davis in pass coverage. It’s something to track this week with the Patriots having Dion Lewis to exploit them. Does Bowles continue to play Harris and Davis in over 90% of the team’s defensive snaps or does he employ more secondary members into packages?
New York has the look of a true Super Bowl contender, but there is one huge but.
That’s the aforementioned quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
On the surface, Fitzpatrick looks like he’s having a solid season — completing 62.6% of his passes for 1,177 yards and 10 total touchdowns.
That’s a hiding a couple of essential problems. Fitzpatrick has been playing in almost optimal circumstances not having to deal with pressure and his decision making is still very questionable. He has an interception % of 4.1, higher than everyone in the NFL besides Jameis Winston, Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
And it’s probably even worse than that shows:
This is pretty incredible. Ryan Fitzpatrick has 17 interceptable passes this year, one every 10.1 attempts.
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) October 22, 2015
Not good, not good at all.
It’s only come back to bit them once in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, but their quarterback is going to grow into a bigger issue as the season goes on. There is a possibility the Jets can get away with Fitzpatrick this season because the schedule sets up well, but at some point, most likely when they get to the playoffs, it will come back to haunt them.
The New York Jets have enough talent to be a Super Bowl contender, but the most important position in the NFL is once again holding them back. If you’re a Jets fan, you’ve been here before and know the feeling.
