After going 2-14 in 2013 the Houston Texans took a step in the right direction improving to 9-7 last season. Entering head coach Bill O’Brien’s second-year with the franchise they were hoping to take the next step to the playoffs this season.
Houston had a point differential of 65 points, which their nine victories fell right in line with based on an projected expected wins of 9.8 (pro-football-reference.com). Football is a team sport, but Houston was built heavily around one elite player on each side of the ball. Defensive end J.J. Watt and running back Arian Foster were the forces that drove the Texans forward.
They’re going to have to try to accomplish this without their star back for an amount of time we don’t yet know. According to John McClain of the “Houston Chronicle,” Foster is expected to be placed on the short-term IR putting him out through at least Week Eight. The Texans bye falls after that so if true he is going to miss at least half of their games.
Foster played 638 snaps last season, 11th most of all running backs. His 260 rushing attempts were the seventh highest in the NFL.
Even with the individual success Foster had, rushing for 1,246 yards on 4.8 yards per carry and 13 total touchdowns (eight on the ground), Houston ranked 24th in rushing offense by Football Outsiders DVOA metric. While the Texans had effective run blocking, Foster was still relied on to create a ton of extra yardage on his own. Pro Football Focus charted him forcing 51 missed tackles with only Chris Ivory, LeVeon Bell, DeMarco Murray and Marshawn Lynch putting up more. He also compiled 38 receptions.
Foster wasn’t just a starting back, he was the cornerstone of a Texans’ offense that was hamstrung by lackluster quarterbacks. This fact hasn’t changed as Houston goes into the season with a QB competition featuring Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett. Hoyer peaks as average, and Mallett is more of an unknown, with a higher ceiling and much lower floor.
The way you get around poor quarterback play is with a strong running game and despite the notion running back are replaceable pieces — there’s always exceptions to rules. This is the case with Foster and the Texans.
Replacing the production from the two-time, first-team, All-Pro is going to be virtually impossible whether it be Alfred Blue, Jonathan Grimes, Kenny Hilliard, Chris Polk or a veteran off the street.
You never write off a team in the NFL because of one injury. Every team deals with these situations and finds ways to adjust. The Texans path to success in a weak AFC South just got a lot harder and it’s going to take a collective effort from many different areas to reach hopeful expectations.
