With the third week of the preseason a wrap for the NFL I figured it was a good time to give my over/under total picks. For the win totals I used the lines from this story. Here are the team lines I like:
Philadelphia Eagles Over 9.5 +120
As predictions start rolling out it will be pretty obvious I’m all in on the Eagles. I believe in Chip Kelly and what he’s doing, plus I think they have a ton of talent. Philly is going to play fast and aggressive on both sides of the ball. Quarterback play is a worry with Sam Bradford and Mark Sanchez, but so far in his young NFL career Kelly has minimized the need for above average play from the position. They will once again have one of the strongest run games based on their scheme and a solid three-way attack formed by DeMarco Murray, Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. There’s also solid talent on the outside headlined by Jordan Matthews and rookie Nelson Agholor.
On the defensive side forget if you agreed or disagreed with how they spent their money during the offseason — there’s no debate Philly increased its talent on that unit. The front seven has numerous pieces with Fletcher Cox, Vinny Curry, Kiko Alonso, Connor Barwin, Brandon Graham, Mychal Kendricks and DeMeco Ryans all in the mix. The secondary should be better than it was.
Beneficial to Philly getting above the 9.5 wins is its schedule. They get four divisional games against the New York Giants and Washington Redskins, who aren’t very good. The Eagles also play the NFL South, which is most likely the weakest division in the conference. At worst I see 6-2 in those eight games. That means they just need to go 4-4 against the Cowboys (twice), Jets, Dolphins, Bills, Patriots, Lions and Cardinals. I think that’s doable.
Chicago Bears Under 7.0 -150
It looks like another ugly year is on tap for the Bears despite changing coaches from Marc Trestman to John Fox. A tough schedule headlines their issues having to play their own division, AFC West and NFC West. Chicago could very well end up 0-3 heading into a home game against the Raiders in Week Four since they open up at home versus the Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals then hit the road to take on the Seahawks.
Wide receiver Alshon Jeffrey has been banged up for the majority of training camp and Kevin White might not play the entire season. That’s putting a lot on Jay Cutler, Eddie Royal and Matt Forte. The talent isn’t strong on the defensive end either. A last place finish in the NFC North is in play for a second straight season.
Oakland Raiders Over 5.5 +120
Yep, I’m doing it, I’m on the Raiders bandwagon. Laugh at me all you want. I love Khalil Mack. I love Amari Cooper. I love Marcel Reece. I believe in Latavius Murray. I’m hopeful for Derek Carr. The jump for them might be one more season away, but I don’t see getting value like 5.5 after the Raiders show to be competent and heading in the right direction.
My only hesitation to them hitting the over is the tough schedule. The AFC West is going to be brutal this season with the Denver Broncos, San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs all looking solid. Oakland also plays the AFC North and the NFC North. For this to happen wins at the Browns, at the Bears, hosting the Jets and at the Titans have to happen. I think their Week One game hosting the Bengals is one of the more intriguing matchups of the first Sunday.
New York Giants Under 8.0 +120
I just don’t see a path to the Giants to get to .500. Their offense is still going to be good, but the defense has the potential to be a train wreck. New York can’t rusher the passer and they don’t cover well — not an optimal combination. Tom Coughlin’s successful run with the Giants could be coming to an unfortunate end.
San Francisco 49ers 7.5 Under -140
The talent exodus from the Niners this offseason has been beaten to death so I’m not going to through it all again. They lost a boat load of talent and it’s going to be virtually impossible to replace. If everything goes 100% right for San Francisco I’d say the ceiling is eight games and I don’t see that happening. It’s going to take Colin Kaepernick becoming the quarterback Ron Jaworski thought he could be for the 49ers to hit this over.
