A cliche used across sports is “you are what your record is.” Unfortunately, it isn’t that simple, especially in the NFL.
The Atlanta Falcons are 5-0 and sit alone in first place in the NFC South. Atlanta has beaten the Philadelphia Eagles, New York Giants, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans and Washington Redskins.
The combined record of those five teams is 10-15 and that looks better than it is. Both of the Cowboys wins came with Tony Romo playing quarterback and the Falcons had the honor of facing Brandon Weeden.
Atlanta has trailed in the fourth quarter against all four mediocre NFC East teams and the defense is giving up a middling 22.4 points per game. This isn’t a sustainable way to win games no matter how good the Falcons offense is.
Luckily for Atlanta, the schedule doesn’t get much tougher. They have four games left against the putrid AFC South, two games apiece versus the New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and the San Francisco 49ers. The only winning teams on the Falcons schedule are the Carolina Panthers (twice) and Indianapolis Colts, plus the Minnesota Vikings are .500.
Considering only one second place team in the NFC has more than two wins (Panthers) and what we know about the Falcons schedule it’s almost assured they’re heading to the playoffs.
The Falcons are going to get a chance, but the probability of them being able to beat the Green Bay Packers or Arizona Cardinals seems extremely slim.
Atlanta is doing an excellent job making the best of advantageous circumstances — this doesn’t mean they’re a true Super Bowl contender despite what their record says.
