The topic has been danced around here and there, but post draft the table is now set for the possibility of the top two drafted players facing off in a week 1 season opener. That would of course be two quarterbacks, Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston (drafted from Florida State) and Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota (Oregon). Indeed the Bucs are scheduled to host the Titans in week 1 at 4:25 EST on Sunday, September 13th. Much still needs to happen for either player to start on 9/13, though, and the most significant road blocks are Mike Glennon and Zach Mettenberger. One has to assume the NFL schedule makers paired this matchup for week 1 with the idea of Mariota vs. Winston being a distinct possibility, though. And you can imagine the national interest should both players end preseason atop their respective depth charts.
Should they start, it will be fun to see how they perform against each other head to head when you consider how much they’ve been compared to each other for the better part of the last year. Prized 1st round rookie quarterbacks in their first start tend to be protected with a conservative gameplan, so it will be interesting to see how this game is called. And while the ceiling for these two players is sky high, game one performance expectations should be tempered.
Here’s a look at how other 1st round rookie quarterbacks since 2010 fared when starting for the first time in their rookie season:
| Player | Team | Pick Selection | Comp/Att | Yards | TDs | Ints | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | Jaguars | 3rd in 2014 | 29/37 | 254 | 1 | 2 | 14-33 loss to Chargers |
| Johnny Manziel | Browns | 22nd in 2014 | 10/18 | 80 | 0 | 2 | 0-30 loss to Bengals |
| Teddy Bridgewater | Vikings | 32nd in 2014 | 19/30 | 317 | 0 | 0 | 41-28 win over Falcons |
| E. J. Manuel | Bills | 16th in 2013 | 18/27 | 150 | 2 | 0 | 21-23 loss to Patriots |
| Andrew Luck | Colts | 1st in 2012 | 23/45 | 309 | 1 | 3 | 21-41 loss to Bears |
| Robert Griffin III | Redskins | 2nd in 2012 | 19/26 | 320 | 2 | 0 | 40-32 win over Saints |
| Ryan Tannehill | Dolphins | 8th in 2012 | 20/36 | 219 | 0 | 3 | 10-30 loss to Texans |
| Brandon Weeden | Browns | 22nd in 2012 | 12/35 | 118 | 0 | 4 | 16-17 loss to Eagles |
| Cam Newton | Panthers | 1st in 2011 | 24/37 | 422 | 2 | 1 | 21-28 loss to Cardinals |
| Blaine Gabbert | Jaguars | 10th in 2011 | 12/21 | 139 | 1 | 1 | 10-16 loss to Panthers |
| Christian Ponder | Vikings | 10th in 2011 | 13/32 | 219 | 2 | 2 | 27-33 loss to Packers |
| Sam Bradford | Rams | 1st in 2010 | 32/55 | 253 | 1 | 3 | 13-17 loss to Cardinals |
| Tim Tebow | Broncos | 25th in 2010 | 8/16 | 138 | 1 | 0 | 23-39 loss to Raiders |
As you can see, the first time performances since 2010 have been quite poor. So while the media will push Winston vs. Mariota (if it happens) as must see TV, don’t expect an electrifying performance. The storyline is compelling but the play is unlikely to be. Since 2010, 1st round pick quarterbacks have combined for a woeful 2-11 record with 13 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions. Only three of the 13 listed above delivered a performance that can be considered impressive in their debut (Bridgewater, Newton, Griffin) and only two of those were able to win.
