If you want the best chance at drafting an All-Pro, history actually indicates you’re better off owning the second overall pick than the No. 1 selection. In fact, based on data we collected and analyzed from Pro Football Reference, teams possessing the third, fourth and fifth pick have also actually gotten more out of their selections — at least from an All-Pro standpoint — than those picking first.
Nearly twice as many first-team All-Pros have been drafted second than first, and nearly as many Hall of Famers have been taken in that No. 2 spot. And the No. 4 spot has produced just as many Hall of Famers and more All-Pro players than the top selection has.
Here’s the full breakdown:
Most All-Pro players by draft pick:
| Pick | All-Pro players |
| 2 | 17 |
| 3 | 14 |
| 4 | 12 |
| 5 | 12 |
| 6 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 |
| 10 | 11 |
| 1 | 10 |
| 9 | 10 |
| 13 | 10 |
| 14 | 10 |
That’s right, more modern-era All-Pro players have been picked second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, eighth and 10th than first. The ninth pick also fares well, with the seventh and first pick failing to keep up at nine and 10 apiece.
Fewest All-Pro players by draft pick:
| Pick | All-Pro players |
| 25 | 2 |
| 18 | 3 |
| 21 | 3 |
| 22 | 3 |
| 31 | 3 |
| 17 | 4 |
| 20 | 4 |
| 23 | 4 |
| 28 | 4 |
| 32 | 4 |
The 25th pick has produced only two All-Pros, which really stands out, while the 18th, 21st and 22nd also fare poorly considering those spots.
Most All-Pro seasons by draft pick:
| Pick | All-Pro seasons |
| 2 | 45 |
| 3 | 34 |
| 4 | 33 |
| 1 | 27 |
| 5 | 27 |
| 9 | 26 |
| 10 | 23 |
| 13 | 23 |
| 8 | 21 |
| 26 | 21 |
Against, second, third, fourth and pick are either with or ahead of the first pick. Amazing that the ninth pick has produced nearly as many All-Pro seasons as the top selection, and the 26th selection even comes close (thanks to Ray Lewis and Alan Faneca for that).
Fewest All-Pro seasons by draft pick:
| Pick | All-Pro seasons |
| 25 | 2 |
| 18 | 4 |
| 22 | 5 |
| 30 | 5 |
| 32 | 5 |
| 15 | 6 |
| 21 | 6 |
| 31 | 6 |
| 23 | 7 |
| 27 | 7 |
It gets even uglier for the 25th selection, with the 15th and 18th picks also performing poorly again.
Most Hall of Famers by draft pick:
| Pick | Hall of Famers |
| 1 | 6 |
| 4 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 |
| 6 | 4 |
| 3 | 3 |
| 5 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 |
| 10 | 3 |
| 13 | 2 |
| 23 | 2 |
| 28 | 2 |
Yes, you’re just as likely to draft a Hall of Famer fourth overall as you are first overall, and more likely to draft an All-Pro player who will have more All-Pro seasons under his belt. The 23rd and 28th picks also make waves with two Hall of Famers a piece.
Fewest Hall of Famers by draft pick:
| Pick | Hall of Famers |
| 7 | 0 |
| 15 | 0 |
| 22 | 0 |
| 24 | 0 |
| 25 | 0 |
| 29 | 0 |
| 30 | 0 |
| 31 | 0 |
| 32 | 0 |
It’s hard to believe that Hall of Famers have never been drafted seventh or 15th. Everything else makes sense.
Combining it all:
Let’s bring all of the criteria together and give 10 points to Hall of Famers, who are obviously a much bigger deal than All-Pros.
| Pick | All-Pro players | All-Pro seasons | Hall of Famers | Points | Pick rank |
| 2 | 17 | 45 | 50 | 112 | 1 |
| 4 | 12 | 33 | 60 | 105 | 2 |
| 1 | 10 | 27 | 60 | 97 | 3 |
| 3 | 14 | 34 | 30 | 78 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | 27 | 30 | 69 | 5 |
| 6 | 11 | 18 | 40 | 69 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | 23 | 30 | 64 | 7 |
| 8 | 11 | 21 | 30 | 62 | 8 |
| 13 | 10 | 23 | 20 | 53 | 9 |
| 9 | 10 | 26 | 10 | 46 | 10 |
| 26 | 8 | 21 | 10 | 39 | 11 |
| 16 | 8 | 20 | 10 | 38 | 12 |
| 14 | 10 | 17 | 10 | 37 | 13 |
| 11 | 7 | 19 | 10 | 36 | 14 |
| 28 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 32 | 15 |
| 12 | 7 | 14 | 10 | 31 | 16 |
| 23 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 31 | 17 |
| 19 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 30 | 18 |
| 17 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 26 | 19 |
| 7 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 24 | 20 |
| 20 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 24 | 21 |
| 27 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 22 | 22 |
| 21 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19 | 23 |
| 18 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | 24 |
| 24 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 25 |
| 29 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 26 |
| 15 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 11 | 27 |
| 30 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 10 | 28 |
| 31 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 29 |
| 32 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 30 |
| 22 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 31 |
| 25 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 32 |
The way this shakes out, you’re better off picking second or fourth than you are first. And the third, fifth and sixth picks are also within that range. Unsurprisingly, the seventh, 15th and 25th picks fare extremely poorly.
Picks that have been more valuable than they should be:
| Pick | Pick rank | Pick difference |
| 26 | 11 | +15 |
| 28 | 15 | +13 |
| 23 | 17 | +6 |
| 27 | 22 | +5 |
| 13 | 9 | +4 |
| 16 | 12 | +4 |
| 10 | 7 | +3 |
| 29 | 26 | +3 |
Derrick Brooks and Darrell Green give the 28th pick some serious street cred. You’re also in great shape picking 10th, 13th and 16th.
Picks that have been less valuable than they should be:
| Pick | Pick rank | Pick difference |
| 7 | 20 | -13 |
| 15 | 27 | -12 |
| 22 | 31 | -9 |
| 25 | 32 | -7 |
| 18 | 24 | -6 |
| 12 | 16 | -4 |
| 11 | 14 | -3 |
Turns out the 22nd pick is just about as bad as seventh and 15th, with 25th and 18th also in that range.
So, in conclusion…
Historically awesome picks: 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 10th, 13th, 16th, 23rd, 26th and 28th. So congrats to the Titans, Jaguars, Raiders, Redskins, Rams, Saints, Texans, Lions, Ravens and Broncos.
Historically crappy picks: 1st, 7th, 11th, 12th, 15th, 18th, 22nd and 25th. So sorry, Buccaneers, Bears, Vikings, Browns, 49ers, Chiefs, Steelers and Panthers.
