Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers in 2005 and Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco in 2008. Those are the only two times in the last 10 years in which both of the top two quarterbacks drafted wound up having successful careers. You could even argue that the jury is no longer out on the last two classes, which featured Blake Bortles and bust-in-the-making Johnny Manziel and EJ Manuel and Geno Smith.
Drafting quarterbacks in the first round truly is a crapshoot. As I established earlier this offseason, it’s been at best a 50/50 proposition for over a decade, which is why one team is very likely to get burned early in this year’s draft.
One will take Jameis Winston, another will take Marcus Mariota. And while there are bust risk factors for both (Winston’s character and his interceptions, Mariota’s pocket presence and size), the reality is history indicates it truly is almost impossible to predict these career paths.
What’s scarier is that, if history is any indication, the risk isn’t any less real if Winston and Mariota are chosen first and second. Since the 1970 merger, quarterbacks have been chosen 1-2 on five occasions. And on four of those occasions, one of the two pivots picked became a bust.
2012: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III
1999: Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb
1998: Peyton Manning, Ryan Leaf
1993: Drew Bledsoe, Rick Mirer
1971: Jim Plunkett, Archie Manning
And you could actually argue that we’re being generous by calling Plunkett and Manning success stories. In a combined 30 seasons, they went to a combined two Pro Bowls. In fact, never in NFL history — dating back to the first draft in 1936 — have two eventual All-Pro quarterbacks been drafted 1-2.
But regardless of where they’re drafted, Winston and Mariota will almost certainly be the first two signal callers off the board. And there’s a chance they’ll be the next Eli Manning/Philip Rivers, but there’s also a chance they’ll be the next Peyton Manning/Ryan Leaf. Or, in a scary yet very plausible scenario, the next Vince Young/Matt Leinart.
