With six weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture…
AFC right now
1. Raiders (8-2)
2. Patriots (8-2)
3. Texans (6-4)
4. Ravens (5-5)
5. Chiefs (7-3)
6. Broncos (7-3)
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7. Dolphins (6-4)
8. Steelers (5-5)
9. Colts (5-5)
10. Bills (5-5)
11. Titans (5-6)
Oakland edges out New England thanks to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker, which is pretty much useless right now. All that matters is those are your two two-loss teams, the Chiefs and Broncos are your two three-loss teams and nobody else in the AFC has fewer than four losses. Houston is hanging on with the Colts and Titans still alive in the South, while Baltimore holds a tiebreaker lead over the Steelers in the North. The Dolphins and Bills are still in the wild-card picture but can’t be considered major threats.
AFC projection
1. Patriots (14-2)
2. Raiders (11-5)
3. Steelers (10-6)
4. Texans (9-7)
5. Chiefs (10-6)
6. Broncos (10-6)
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7. Ravens (9-7)
8. Colts (9-7)
9. Dolphins (9-7)
10. Bills (8-8)
11. Titans (7-9)
I’m thinking we need to use several tiebreakers for Texans-Colts, and the way I worked it out Houston got through. Still, that should be the most interesting division race that ultimately doesn’t matter. That’s because the winner should get destroyed by an AFC West team. The Patriots, Raiders and Steelers are simply better than everyone else in their respective divisions.
NFC right now
1. Cowboys (9-1)
2. Seahawks (7-2-1)
3. Falcons (6-4)
4. Lions (6-4)
5. Giants (7-3)
6. Redskins (6-3-1)
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7. Vikings (6-4)
8. Buccaneers (5-5)
9. Eagles (5-5)
10. Cardinals (4-5-1)
11. Saints (4-6)
12. Panthers (4-6)
13. Rams (4-6)
14. Packers (4-6)
Five of the six playoff teams won last week, while the sixth (Atlanta) was on a bye. So the status quo remains. But wins from Minnesota and Tampa Bay put them on the edge, while Philadelphia and Arizona losses hurt their playoff chances. The Saints, Panthers and Packers are all 4-6, but they’re still just two games back in their respective divisions. The Cardinals and Rams have just as many wins but are pretty much out of hope in the NFC West.
NFC projection
1. Cowboys (13-3)
2. Seahawks (12-3-1)
3. Falcons (10-6)
4. Lions (9-7)
5. Redskins (10-5-1)
6. Giants (10-6)
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7. Vikings (8-8)
8. Packers (8-8)
9. Saints (8-8)
10. Eagles (8-8)
11. Buccaneers (7-9)
12. Cardinals (6-9-1)
13. Panthers (6-10)
14. Rams (5-11)
Not a lot of drama. I think the Falcons are clearly the best team in the South, the Lions are clearly the best team in the North and the Cowboys and Seahawks are running away with the East and West, respectively. The Redskins and Giants also look great and are gaining momentum, while the Vikings, Packers and Eagles are fading fast. I don’t think the Saints, Bucs, Cards, Panthers or Rams have runs in them.
