With four weeks remaining in the 2016 NFL regular season, here’s a breakdown of the playoff picture…
AFC right now
1. Raiders (10-2)
2. Patriots (10-2)
3. Ravens (7-5)
4. Texans (6-6)
5. Chiefs (9-3)
6. Broncos (8-4)
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7. Dolphins (7-5)
8. Steelers (7-5)
9. Colts (6-6)
10. Bills (6-6)
11. Titans (6-6)
Oakland controls its own destiny for the top spot in the AFC, thanks to a common opponent tiebreaker with New England. Those two teams appear locked in at the top, but Kansas City can break that up with a home victory over the Raiders Thursday night. If that happens, the Chiefs jump into the top spot in the AFC West thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker with Oakland. Baltimore and Houston are holding on in their respective divisions, but only because the Ravens have the tiebreaker edge over Pittsburgh and the Texans have that edge over both Indianapolis and Tennessee. The Broncos are also in the hunt in the AFC West, but they might have to work merely to hold off the runners up in the AFC North, AFC South and AFC East (Miami and Buffalo) in order to earn a wild-card berth.
AFC projection
1. Raiders (13-3)
2. Patriots (13-3)
3. Steelers (11-5)
4. Colts (9-7)
5. Chiefs (12-4)
6. Ravens (9-7)
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7. Broncos (9-7)
8. Dolphins (9-7)
9. Titans (9-7)
10. Bills (9-7)
11. Texans (8-8)
I crunched some serious tiebreaker numbers to give Baltimore the edge over Denver, Miami, Tennessee and Buffalo in a wild five-way tie. All for the right to be destroyed by the streaking Steelers in Round 1. I think the Raiders are still better than Kansas City, and get a victory Thursday that winds up being the difference there. That also gives them an edge over New England. The Texans are free-falling and Tennessee just doesn’t have the tiebreaker magic in either the division or the wild-card race.
NFC right now
1. Cowboys (11-1)
2. Seahawks (8-3-1)
3. Lions (8-4)
4. Falcons (7-5)
5. Giants (8-4)
6. Buccaneers (7-5)
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7. Redskins (6-5-1)
8. Vikings (6-6)
9. Packers (6-6)
Dallas is strolling to the top seed and Seattle has a clear edge over Detroit, Atlanta and Tampa Bay in the race for that No. 2 seed. Those teams have basically locked up the NFC East and NFC West, respectively, leaving the Giants and Redskins to fight for a wild-card spot (nobody else in the West is at or above .500). The Buccaneers hold a wild-card spot alongside New York, but Tampa is now focused on overtaking Atlanta to win the NFC South. Right now, the Falcons have the edge because they have a better divisional record, but there’s plenty of time for that to change. Meanwhile, the Vikings and Packers are one game behind Tampa Bay for the last wild-card spot and two games back of first-place Detroit in the NFC North.
NFC projection
1. Cowboys (13-3)
2. Seahawks (11-4-1)
3. Lions (11-5)
4. Buccaneers (9-7)
5. Redskins (10-5-1)
6. Giants (10-6)
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7. Falcons (9-7)
8. Cardinals (8-7-1)
9. Packers (8-8)
10. Vikings (8-8)
Dallas and Seattle should cruise, but I do have a feeling the Lions will stay hot and make that Week 17 matchup with Green Bay meaningless. Tampa Bay edges the Falcons right out of the playoffs with the tiebreaker — with Atlanta losing its final two games to Carolina and New Orleans. Washington and the Giants have seemed like obvious wild-card teams all along. Arizona and Green Bay won’t have enough in the tank, and Minnesota just isn’t good enough.
