If you ask Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley what you should do with the first overall fantasy football pick, he’s emphatic in saying you should pick him. He may not be lacking in self confidence but his statement entrance to the NFL is undeniable. Despite playing in only 13 games as a rookie he rushed for 1,106 yards and 10 touchdowns which earned him a trip to the Pro Bowl, NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, second team All-Pro status and #22 on the NFL Network top 100 NFL players list. A pretty impressive resume coming off a shortened first season which reminds many of Odell Beckham Jr.’s taking the league by storm. But should Gurley really be taken first overall in fantasy drafts? Have we seen enough to assume a meteoric rise to NFL elite status?
The simple answer is no. While Gurley is unquestionably on his way to becoming one of the league’s best players, that doesn’t justify taking him first overall in NFL fantasy drafts just yet. Here’s three clear reasons why he should be picked high, sure, but definitely not first overall:
1. PPR
If you’re in a PPR league, the answer becomes even easier. We’re not that far away from a receiver catching 150 passes for 2,000 yards and double digit touchdowns the way this league is going. The numbers Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins are putting up are incredible and almost unprecedented. Further, Gurley only caught 21 passes in 13 games last year with no receiving touchdowns. The Rams don’t utilize Gurley enough in the passing game yet to promise he’ll be a very top performer in a PPR league.
2. He’s not even the highest producing RB
Even if you’re not in a PPR league, other backs are listed ahead of him. ESPN’s Matthew Berry lists Gurley as his third best fantasy back behind Adrian Peterson and Le’Veon Bell. In 2015, Gurley was fifth in points produced by a back behind Devonta Freeman, Peterson, Doug Martin and DeAngelo Williams. Eric Karabell of ESPN ranks his 7th overall behind two other backs. Yahoo! Sports panel of fantasy experts ranks him as 4th in standard leagues and 7th in PPR leagues overall (2nd RB in standard scoring, 3rd RB in PPR). Gurley will be very good, but he’s less likely to be the top producing fantasy player in 2016.
3. Injury
As ridiculously awesome as Gurley was last year, and as appealing as it is to take a running back that’s already established at just 21 years of age and likely only to improve, let’s not forget the reason he missed 3 games last year. Gurley was suspended indefinitely at Georgia in 2014 for alleged NCAA violations, would end up missing 2 games, and gruesomely tore his ACL during his first game back from that suspension. He would enter the NFL draft and eventually miss three games while he was eased back into action given the seriousness of his college injury. Gurley clearly worked hard to make his way back to play and he showed no ill effects from that injury in his first season in the NFL. And it must be said: the two backs he’s being most closely compared to (Peterson and Bell) have dealt with recent knee injuries themselves. Still, his NFL sample size is small and you have to some pause at first overall given his recent medical concerns.
Gurley is already a fantastic NFL player and it’s likely he’ll only improve. He may very well be the clear cut first overall fantasy football pick very soon, too. Just not this year. There’s other players with a more impressive resume and promising potential for 2016.
