Breaking down the contenders and the pretenders in the AFC at the quarter mark of the 2016 NFL season.
After four weeks, most NFL teams are now officially at the quarter mark of their regular season schedules. Which means it is time to do a Quarterly Report of the NFL season so far as we evaluate the state of the 2016 season with 25% of the year now in the rearview.
With a handful of preseason contenders living up to the hype and a handful of teams on the rise as surprises, it is time to break down who is a real contender as well as which teams are pretenders destined to fade after a solid first month of the season.
Following are the teams that should contend all season and the teams that are at risk of a drop after the first quarter of the 2016 NFL regular season:
Contenders
New England Patriots
It shouldn’t take much of an argument to claim the New England Patriots as one of the favorites in the AFC this season. After all, the Patriots are 3-1 after they were forced to play rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett for the final half of Tom Brady’s Deflategate suspension. A clear statement from the Pats as they look ready to run through the rest of the league now that Brady is set to make his return.
The Patriots have tough competition in a deep AFC this year, but after they dropped just one game without Brady they should be viewed as one of the teams to beat as we head into October and beyond. This team is built to win around Bill Belichick’s system, but with Brady at the helm, it is scary to think where the Patriots will end up at the end of the season as they look for revenge over the Deflategate saga.
Denver Broncos
At the start of the season, expectations were split on the defending champs with Trevor Siemian at quarterback. However, those expectations were quickly changed over the first four games of the season as the Broncos have raced out of the gate.
A 4-0 start has quickly erased any concerns about the Broncos chances of a Super Bowl defense as the champs look fine with Siemian under center. Wins over the Bengals and the Panthers evidence that the Broncos can win against the top teams in the league without Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler.
Broncos have won 9 straight games using 4 different QBs. Unreal.
— Ross Tucker (@RossTuckerNFL) October 5, 2016
Siemian could still end up to be a liability, but at the quarter mark, the Broncos deserve to be considered as a top contender to make a Super Bowl run. As one of the NFL’s remaining undefeated teams, the Super Bowl hangover has yet to be a factor in Denver even with their unproven quarterback.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Right beside the Patriots and Broncos on the contender’s list are the Steelers, who went from pretenders status to back on the contender’s list after their beat down of the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. A win that was a needed bounce back game for the Steelers after a blowout loss to rookie Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.
With Le’Veon Bell back from suspension, it looks as if the Steelers are set to pull away from the rest of the AFC North in October. In a tough division, things could still be difficult for the Steelers if the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals can keep pace. However, with the Steelers offense back at full speed with Bell in the backfield, the Steelers should be the division champs come January if they can build off of their impressive win over Kansas City.
Oakland Raiders
Yes, the Oakland Raiders deserve to be on this list after their Week 4 road win over the Baltimore Ravens. A third straight win away from the Coliseum that proved the Silver and Black are for real after they were the recipients of plenty of preseason hype as potential dark horse contenders.
Through four games, third-year quarterback Derek Carr has nine touchdowns and just one interception behind one of the best offensive line units in the league. Veteran wideout Michael Crabtree is red hot and the Raiders defense that struggled in the start of the season is slowly on the rise. All factors that should have the Raiders considered as a team that is talented enough to contend for a deep playoff run.
Derek Carr is Top 5 in:
-Completion %: 68% (5th)
-Completions: 104 (Tied 4th)
-TD Passes: 9 (4th)
-Passer Rating: 104.6 (4th)#Raiders— Moe Moton (@MoeMoton) October 4, 2016
In a deep AFC West, there is a risk of a letdown for the Raiders if Carr can’t continue to lead the way in close games. However, the Raiders are currently for real after the first month, which is welcome news for a franchise that has a playoff drought that dates back to 2002.
Pretenders
Kansas City Chiefs
Before the season, the Chiefs were the team that experts felt had the best chance to knock the Denver Broncos off their perch atop the AFC West. Injuries have instead been the story in Kansas City through the first month as a banged up Chiefs team doesn’t appear to have enough to get the job done this season.
With Justin Houston still out with an injury and running back Jamaal Charles still slowed with his own ailments, the Chiefs simply look like a lesser team than their 2015 version. A big concern for head coach Andy Reid as both the Broncos and the Raiders have started their seasons strong in the division.
At 2-2, the Chiefs still have time to bounce back after their Week 5 bye, but it will take a big turnaround from Reid and the coaching staff to right the ship in Kansas City. Right now, the Chiefs are the third best team in the AFC West and until further notice that makes them pretenders this season.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens 3-1 record to start the season might look impressive, but it is a hollow start that was filled with wins against teams that are far out of the playoff picture. A record that is inflated by wins over the Bills, Browns, and Jaguars that ignores the limitations this Ravens team might have.
Ravens are 3-1, but that schedule was frontloaded. Losing a home game by 1 is rough for a team that struggles on the road.
— Football Perspective (@fbgchase) October 2, 2016
All three of those wins to open the season came by less than a touchdown against teams that have all struggled in 2016. A stat that should be a concern for the Ravens after their loss at home to the Raiders last week. A game that was a failure for Baltimore in their first big test of the season as things could get even harder for the Ravens as their level of competition increases.
With four games left against the Steelers and the Bengals, two of which are on the road in the final two weeks of the season, the Ravens are unlikely to make the playoffs despite their 3-0 start against weak competition. When you add in a road game against the Patriots that is also in December, don’t expect Baltimore to be in the playoff picture once the dust is settled after they face the top teams in the league.
