At the very least, Chicago Bears wide receiver Alshon Jeffery will make $14.6 million under the franchise tag in 2016. But there’s talk now that the 26-year-old two-time 1,000-yard wideout could sign a long-term deal before the July 15 deadline for franchise players to do so.
From ESPN.com’s Jeremy Fowler:
It’s been widely assumed Alshon Jeffery will play on the one-year tag of $14.6 M, and though that might happen, I’m told the Bears and Jeffery have continued to talk about a long-term contract and a new deal is certainly possible. July 15 deadline gives plenty of time. If a deal happens, it will be late in process. Bears red-zone offense markedly better with a fully healthy Jeffery in 2014. He missed seven games last year and the team’s RZ ranking dropped.
How valuable is Jeffery to this team? With him in the lineup last season, the Bears averaged 23.4 points per game. Without him, they averaged 17.7. That’s a huge gap, which could become larger now that Chicago has lost a key receiver for the second straight year (Brandon Marshall in 2015, Martellus Bennett in 2016).
Quarterback Jay Cutler is essentially entering a make-or-break season as the Bears look to break out of a five-year playoff drought, but he’ll have to do so without Marshall and Bennett and Pro Bowl running back Matt Forte. And if Jeffery can stay healthy in 2016, he could solve a lot of the team’s offensive problems.
The 2012 second-round pick went over 1,100 yards in 2013 and 2014, scoring 17 touchdowns in that span. And only eight receivers had more 30-yard catches during that stretch.
Still, it would be hard to claim Jeffery is more valuable than Dez Bryant, who has stronger numbers and is only a year older. And Bryant signed a five-year deal last offseason that will pay him $14 million a year. He should instead expect a deal in T.Y. Hilton’s range. Hilton’s career numbers are similar, and he signed a six-year contract last offseason worth about $13 million per year.
With that tag price and salary cap inflation in mind, I’d expect Jeffery to sign something worth about exactly that. A five-year deal worth $65 million with about $30 million guaranteed makes sense.
