The New England Patriots stand as a three-point favorite for Super Bowl LI. Facts surrounding that line…
If that holds up, it’ll be the eighth three-point spread in Super Bowl history. There have been five seven-point spreads. No other Super Bowl spreads are close to as common.
Teams favored by exactly three points are 4-3. With the latest coming when the Patriots fell to the Giants as a three-points favorite in 2011. The four three-point favorites that managed to win also covered the spread, with three of the victories coming in blowout fashion.
Teams favored by at least three points are 30-14 straight up and 22-20-2 against the spread. But three-plus-point faves have actually lost four of the last five Super Bowls.
Super Bowl favorites are 33-16 (25-22-2 ATS) all time. There was no favorite between New England and Seattle two years ago.
But since 2000, Super Bowl favorites are just 7-8. Congrats to underdog winners Denver, Seattle, Baltimore, New Orleans, the Giants (twice), Tampa Bay and New England. Favorites have covered the spread in only three of the last 13 Super Bowls.
Last time a Vegas favorite won the Super Bowl? 2010. Since then, the underdogs (Denver, Seattle, Baltimore and the Giants) have gone 4-0.
The over/under (total) has risen steadily from 57 to 59. If that holds up, it’ll be the highest total in Super Bowl history. The previous high was 56.5, for Saints-Colts in 2009. That game had just 48 points, though.
Five Super Bowls have had totals above 52. Only one (49ers-Dolphins in 1984) went over the total. The other four didn’t even come within a touchdown of the total.
Five of the last eight Super Bowls have gone over the total. But only three Super Bowls in the last 20 years have had more than 56 points.
