The last time the Detroit Lions won a playoff game, George Bush was president. The first one.
For the Lions to end that drought and avoid a nine-game playoff losing streak, they’ll have to defy some pretty big odds on Saturday night. That’s because overrated Detroit has lost three straight games and will have to travel to Seattle to play a Seahawks team with plenty of playoff experience — and one that has won 38 of its last 44 home games.
The Seahawks have also won all four of their home playoff games in the Russell Wilson era, with all four victories coming by six or more points, which explains why the Lions are a sizable underdog entering Saturday’s wild-card matchup.
Five things you need to know
1. Neither team should be considered hot. Detroit was outscored 90-51 in three straight losses to close out the season, blowing what would have been its first division title since 1993. Meanwhile, the usually consistent Seahawks haven’t been right thanks mainly to a shakier-than-ever offensive line and a defense that doesn’t pack the same punch it used to. Seattle finished the season win-loss-win-loss-win-loss-win, with all of the victories coming against sub-.500 opponents and two of the three losses coming at the hands of teams that finished the season above the .500 mark (Tampa Bay and Green Bay). It looked like they were turning the corner when they beat the Patriots on the road in mid-November, but it just hasn’t come together.
2. There are even legitimate questions regarding how good the Lions are altogether. Detroit spent most of the season putting together last-second comebacks in order to beat bad teams (Indy, Philly, Los Angeles, Jacksonville, Chicago, Minnesota twice) and while it’s certainly promising that quarterback Matthew Stafford and his teammates have some late-game magic in them, it’s a little concerning that they continually cut it that close. Based on Pro Football Focus grades, the Lions are actually the NFL’s seventh-worst team. And using DVOA, Football Outsiders ranks them 27th in football. The pass defense is abysmal (they ranked dead last in football with an opposing completion percentage of 72.7 and passer rating of 106.5), the offense lacks balance (they averaged just 3.7 yards per carry), they don’t have a pass rush (their sack rate of 4.5 ranked 31st) and Stafford is injured and inconsistent. The Lions are fun to watch, but they don’t belong in the playoffs.
3. That lack of pass rush could be what truly sinks Detroit on Saturday. You beat Seattle by exploiting arguably the worst offensive line in football, but the Lions barely touched Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night. They had just 26 sacks during the regular season, and just six of those came during their last seven games. No other team had fewer than nine during that stretch. Even if a slightly healthier Darius Slay helps the secondary, it’ll be tough for the Lions to slow down Seahawks quarterback/improvisation king Russell Wilson.
4. The Seahawks certainly aren’t the same with Marshawn Lynch gone and star safety Earl Thomas injured. Wilson has spent the year plagued by injuries and running for his life, the running game hasn’t done enough to compensate for the problems they’ve had along the offensive line and the defense doesn’t have the ammunition to consistently make up for all of those offensive issues. Not with Thomas hurt and Bruce Irvin gone. Fortunately for that unit, they might not have to do a lot against the hampered Stafford and one of the league’s worst running games.
5. Games involving Detroit had just 29 turnovers this season, which was the lowest combined total in the league. They rarely take or give the ball away. Same with the Seahawks, who turned it over six times in a fluke road disaster against Green Bay but had just 36 combined takeaways and turnovers in their 16 games. So this doesn’t feel like the kind of game that will turn on a dumb pick or fumble, which probably bodes well for the Seahawks since they’re the better pure football team.
Prediction: I think the Lions are out of gas. The Seahawks might not have a Super Bowl run in them, but they’ve got playoff pedigree, home-field advantage and even — to a small degree — health on their side. Seahawks 30, Lions 17
