When the Miami Dolphins went undefeated and won the Super Bowl in 1972, weird old NFL rules forced them to go on the road to play the three-loss Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC championship game. That silly format nearly cost Miami a perfect season. The Dolphins fell behind early before coming back to edge Terry Bradshaw’s Steelers 21-17 on New Year’s Eve at Three Rivers Stadium.
On Sunday, 44 years later, two of the most storied franchises in NFL history will meet in the playoffs for the first-ever time at Pittsburgh’s Heinz Field, with Miami trying to earn a divisional-round matchup against the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh trying to extent its winning streak to eight games in order to set up a divisional-round tilt with the Kansas City Chiefs.
Six things you need to know
1. Miami surprised Pittsburgh 30-15 in Week 6, kicking off a six-game winning streak. In fact, the Dolphins have lost just twice since that game. But Miami had a healthy Ryan Tannehill at quarterback that day, and the Steelers did not have a healthy Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben injured his ankle early in that game and struggled mightily after that. Meanwhile, Tannehill suffered ACL and MCL sprains in his left knee in Week 14 and hasn’t played since.
2. With Roethlisberger healthy and top weapons Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown rolling, the Steelers have quietly won seven straight games. But they’ve still had some issues with consistency on both sides of the ball, and it’s important to note that two of those victories came against Cleveland. Against teams that finished the season with winning records, the Steelers have actually lost three in a row. And yes, Miami had a winning record, but the Dolphins were 1-4 in games versus winning teams in the regular-season (their only win coming against the Steelers at home).
3. Tannehill looks as though he’s close to being able to return, with reports indicating he’s been walking around the locker room without a limp. But can he get in enough reps this week to start Sunday against a strong defense on the road? And just how healthy will he be? That’s the big mystery right now, because interim starter Matt Moore actually posted a 106.5 passer rating while winning two of his three starts in relief of Tannehill. Rushing the former first-round pick back could do more harm than good.
4. Of course, it might not matter who’s quarterbacking the Dolphins if running back Jay Ajayi can get hot against a vulnerable Pittsburgh run defense. Ajayi broke out with a 204-yard, two-touchdown performance in that Week 6 victory over the Steelers, and he hit the 200-yard mark twice more in 2016. Yes, the Steelers defense is better than it was then — front-seven studs Stephon Tuitt, Ryan Shazier, James Harrison and Jarvis Jones have all excelled late — but they still gave up 353 rushing yards to Baltimore and Cleveland to finish the season. Ajayi is boom or bust. He could hijack this game or fail to show up entirely, and I wouldn’t be surprised either way.
5. Meanwhile, Bell has a better chance of taking over this game for the Steelers. Miami surrendered a league-worst 4.8 yards per carry this season, and Bell is one of the hottest offensive players in the league. He averaged 175 scrimmage yards per game during the second half of the season, scoring nine touchdowns in seven games during that span.
6. Miami probably only pulls this off if Roethlisberger throws several silly passes and the Dolphins make him pay. That’s always a possibility with Ben, who had two baffling interceptions in a huge Week 16 game against Baltimore and was picked off three times in Buffalo in Week 14. But the Dolphins had just 25 takeaways and 33 sacks during the regular season, and they forced zero turnovers in their last two games. The secondary has endured injuries to starters Reshad Jones and Byron Maxwell, so even big games from Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake might not be enough.
Prediction: This is the first time we’ve seen the killer B’s (Ben, Bell and Brown) together in the playoffs. At home against a team that may be running out of gas after that playoff run, I can’t see Pittsburgh losing this game. Steelers 27, Dolphins 17
